[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2015 Apr 24 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2015 Apr 24 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was at low levels this period. Region 2325 (N05W69, Hsx/alpha) and Region 2333 (N20E44, Cai/beta) each produced a C3 flare at 23/1520 UTC and 23/1959 UTC, respectively, which were the largest events of the period. Region 2326 (N19W89, Bxo/beta) produced multiple low-level C-class flares later in the period as it neared the western limb. Region 2331 (S09W26, Dai/beta) exhibited minor development in its trailer spot area while the remaining five active regions on the visible disk were either stable or in decay. No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) were observed this period.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a slight chance for M-class (R1-Minor) flares over the next three days (24-26 Apr).

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at moderate levels throughout the period and reached a maximum flux value of 955 pfu at 23/1740 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was slightly enhanced but remained below the S1 (Minor) event threshold.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at low to moderate levels with a chance for high levels over the next three days (24-26 Apr). The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is likely to remain slightly elevated over the next two days (24-25 Apr), but is expected to remain below the S1 (Minor) event threshold.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters were indicative of a nominal solar wind environment. Solar wind velocity decreased from initial values near 450 km/s to end-of-period values near 375 km/s. IMF total field values were steady near 5 nT and Bz was mostly positive throughout the period. The phi angle was steady in a positive (away from the Sun) solar sector orientation.

Forecast: Solar wind velocity is expected to remain near background levels over the next three days (24-26 Apr). A solar sector boundary change (positive to negative) is expected on day two (25 Apr) with extended periods of southward Bz possible.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled this period under a nominal solar wind regime.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and three (24,26 Apr) with quiet to active levels expected on day two (25 Apr) due to a solar sector boundary change (positive to negative).

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