[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2015 Apr 26 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2015 Apr 26 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was low. The largest event of the period was a long-duration C1 flare at 25/1849 UTC that was associated with activity on the northwest limb. Shortly after the flare, the associated coronal mass ejection (CME) was first observed in SOHO/LASCO C2 coronagraph imagery at 25/181836 UTC but was not Earth-directed. An asymmetrical partial-halo CME was observed in coronagraph imagery beginning at 25/1448 UTC but was associated with solar activity on the far-side of the Sun and was not Earth-directed.

Region 2331 (S09W54, Dai/beta-gamma) began to show signs of decay and magnetic simplification this period, but remains the most complex region on the visible disk. The remaining three active regions on the disk were stable throughout the period. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed. Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a slight chance for M-class (R1-Minor) flare activity over the next three days (26-28 Apr).

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at moderate to high levels and reached a peak flux value of 1,310 pfu at 25/1530 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was slightly elevated this period but remained well below event thresholds.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to persist at moderate to high levels over the next three days (26-28 Apr). The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to return to background levels on day one (26 Apr) and remain there for days two and three (27-28 Apr).

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters were at background levels this period. Solar wind velocity decreased from initial values near 335 km/s to end-of-period values near 300 km/s. IMF total field values were steady between 2-4 nT and Bz was mostly positive throughout the period. The phi angle remained steady in a positive (away from the Sun) solar sector orientation.

Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected to remain at background levels over the next three days (26-28 Apr) with a minor perturbation possible on day three due to a solar sector boundary crossing.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was exceedingly quiet under a nominal solar wind regime.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to persist at quiet levels on days one and two (26-27 Apr) with quiet to unsettled levels likely on day three (28 Apr) due to a solar sector boundary crossing.

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