[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2015 May 01 1230 UTC

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2015 May 01 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Region 2335 (S15E70,Dao/beta) brought solar activity to low levels with a C1 flare at 30/2108 UTC and a C2 flare at 01/0257 UTC. This region grew during the period. Conversely, Region 2334 (S20W03, Bxo/beta) was unproductive and decaying. No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections were observed during the forecast period.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low over the next three days (01-03 May) with a chance for more C-class activity.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at normal levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous orbit was at background levels throughout the period.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to remain at normal to moderate levels over the next three days (01-03 May). The greater than 10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to persist at background levels throughout the forecast period.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind at the ACE spacecraft began near 350 km/s where it remained until approximately 01/0700 UTC after which it rose to 400 km/s. Phi remained positive, Bt remained at or below 11 nT, and Bz remained at or above -9 nT. Observations suggested the influence of a weak, positive, coronal hole high speed stream.

Forecast: Solar wind speed is expected to continue increasing through day one (01 May) as the anticipated positive polarity coronal hole high speed wind stream becomes established. Conditions are expected to persist through day two (May 02) before beginning to wane on day three (03 May).

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to remain at quiet to unsettled levels with a slight chance for active levels (Below G1-Minor) as the positive polarity coronal hole continues to be geoeffective through days one and two (01-02 May). A return to mostly quiet conditions is expected by day three (03 May).

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Live data: SunSpotWatch.com

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