[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2015 May 02 1230 UTC

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2015 May 02 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity declined to very low levels with a few B-class flares observed from Region 2335 (S15E58, Dac/beta-gamma). The region remained the lone spotted region on the disk. Region 2335 continued to show development in its trailer and intermediate spots and displayed some weak mixed polarities within the intermediate spots.

Three CMEs were observed during the period. The most impressive event was an asymmetric, full-halo CME first visible in SOHO/LASCO C2 imagery at 01/1812 UTC. This CME is believed to be a back-sided event with no Earth-impact expected. The second CME was observed off the SW limb, first visible in C2 imagery at 01/2224 UTC and was associated with an eruptive prominence on the SW limb. The third CME was observed off the east limb, first visible in C2 imagery at 02/0800 UTC, and was associated with an area of enhanced plage on the east limb. Neither of these CMEs appear to have Earth-directed components.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for C-class flares over the next three days (02-04 May).

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal levels and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels throughout the period.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to moderate levels for the next three days (02-04 May). The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels throughout the forecast period.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters were indicative of continued coronal high speed stream (CH HSS) influence. Solar wind speed was steady near 425 km/s. IMF total field values varied slightly between 7-10 nT while the Bz component remained mostly northward to +9 nT with some brief southward excursions to -10 nT. The phi angle was generally stable in a positive (away from the Sun) solar sector orientation.

Forecast: Solar wind velocity is expected to remain elevated at near 400 km/s for the remainder of day one (02 May) due to continued CH HSS influence. A return to near background levels is likely on days two and three (03-04 May) as CH HSS effects subside.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels at all latitudes.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels for the remainder of day one (02 May) due to continued CH HSS influence with generally quiet conditions expected on days two and three (03-04 May) as CH HSS effects subside.

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