[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2015 May 03 1230 UTC

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2015 May 03 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity increased to low levels due to a few weak C-class flares. A majority of the activity was observed from Region 2335 (S16E43, Dac/beta). The region continued a minor growth trend, particularly in its intermediate and trailer spot area. An area of enhanced emission, visible on the NE limb in GOES-15 SXI imagery, was also responsible for weak C-class flare activity. New Region 2336 (N13E18, Bxo/beta) emerged on the disk this period.

Numerous CMEs were observed during the period, including a partial-halo CME observed off the SE through SW limb, first visible in SOHO/LASCO C2 imagery at 02/2036 UTC. The source of this CME is thought to be associated with an 18 degree long filament eruption, centered near S46E09, observed between 02/1500-1830 UTC. Analysis is ongoing on the source of this CME and any potential Earth impact.

SOHO/LASCO C2 imagery observed three additional CMEs during the period. The first CME was off the SW limb, first observed at 03/0125 UTC. Two additional CMEs were observed off the NE limb, observed at 03/0400 UTC and 03/0636 UTC. All three of these CMEs are believed to have back-sided source regions and are not expected to impact Earth.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for C-class flares over the next three days (03-05 May).

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels this period, reaching a maximum flux of 118 pfu at 02/1935 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to moderate levels over the next three days (03-05 May) while the greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to persist at background levels throughout the forecast period.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters were indicative of the continued influence of a positive polarity coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS). Solar wind speeds averaged in the 400 km/s range. IMF total field gradually decreased through the period from 9 to 6 nT while Bz reached a maximum southward component of -7 nT at about 02/1900 UTC. The phi angle remained predominately in a positive (away from the Sun) solar sector orientation.

Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected to slowly return to background levels on day one (03 May) and persist at background levels on day two (04 May) and a majority of day three (05 May). A minor solar wind enhancement is likely late on 05 May as a weak negative polarity CH HSS becomes geoeffective. Solar wind velocity is expected to increase to around 450-550 km/s during the HSS.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels this period due to continued CH HSS influence.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at predominately quiet levels for the remainder of day one (03 May). Mostly quiet conditions are expected for day two (04 May) and for a majority of day three (05 May) when the onset of a negative polarity CH HSS is expected to cause periods of unsettled field activity late on 05 May.

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