[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2015 Jul 06 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2015 Jul 06 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity increased to moderate (R1-Minor) levels. At 06/0844 UTC, Region 2381 (N15E37, Dkc/beta-gamma) produced an M1/Sn flare. The region also produced additional C-class flares during the period. Over the past 24 hours, Region 2381 exhibited rapid penumbral leader and trailer growth and displayed mixed magnetic polarities within its intermediate spots. The remaining six spotted regions showed little change and remained unproductive. No Earth-directed CMEs were detected in available coronagraph imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) flare activity over the next three days (06-08 Jul), particularly from Region 2381.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels while the greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background levels throughout the period.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to moderate levels for the remainder of day one (06 Jul) and at moderate to high levels on days two and three (07-08 Jul). The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels throughout the forecast period (06-08 Jul).

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters were indicative of weakening coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS) effects. Solar wind speeds averaged about 525 km/s through the period. IMF total field values ranged between 2-7 nT while the Bz component varied between +6 nT to -5 nT. The phi angle was predominately in a negative (toward the Sun) solar sector orientation throughout the period.

Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected to begin a return to background levels through day one (06 Jul) as CH HSS influence continues to subside. A return to an ambient solar wind environment is expected for days two and three (07-08 Jul).

Geospace

24 hr Summary: Geomagnetic field conditions were at quiet to active levels, reflecting waning CH HSS influence. Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels for the rest of day one (06 Jul) as CH HSS effects weaken. Quiet geomagnetic field activity is expected on days two and three (07-08 Jul) as CH HSS influence subsides.

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