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Here is this week's space weather and geophysical report, issued 2015 Jul 06 0524 UTC.
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
29 June - 05 July 2015
Solar activity ranged from very low to moderate levels this period.
Low levels were observed during the majority of the period with
moderate levels observed on 03 July and very low levels on 05 July.
The majority of the C-flare activity occurred from Regions 2373
(N16, L=141, class/area Dso/150 on 01 July), 2376 (N13, L=124,
class/area Eai/150 on 01 July) and 2378 (S16, L=086, class/area
Cso/090 on 04 July). Region 2378 produced the largest flare of the
period, an impulsive M1/1n flare at 03/1251 UTC. New Region 2381
(N15, L=073, class/area Dao/100 on 05 July) emerged near the NE limb
on 03 July and grew moderately on 05 July, however had not produced
significant flare activity by the time of this report. No
Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) were noted during the
period.
No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit, however
there was an enhancement from 29-30 July as levels were decaying
from the 10 MeV proton event that occurred from 26/0350 UTC through
27/0755 UTC associated with an M7/3b flare at 25/0816 UTC. Another
enhancement to 5 pfu (Below S1-Minor) was observed from 01-02 July,
likely due to flare/CME activity from beyond the west limb at
01/1436 UTC.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at
high levels from 29 June through 04 July reaching a maximum flux
value of 9,670 pfu at 30/1725 UTC. Electron flux decreased to normal
levels on 05 July in response to the arrival of a co-rotating
interaction region (CIR) preceding a negative polarity coronal hole
high speed stream (CH HSS).
Geomagnetic field activity was mostly quiet with solar wind
parameters at nominal levels for the majority of the week. Solar
wind speeds ranged from 300 km/s to 450 km/s and total field values
were between 1 nT and 8 nT. By midday on 04 July, total field,
density, solar wind speed and temperature all began to increase
indicating the arrival of a CIR preceding the anticipated recurrent
negative polarity CH HSS. Total field reached a maximum of 23 nT at
04/1901 UTC with the Bz component reaching a maximum southward
deflection of -22 nT at 04/1911 UTC. Solar wind speed increased from
the mid 300 km/s to 604 km/s by 04/2023 UTC before declining to just
over 500 km/s by the end of the period. The geomagnetic field
responded with G1 (Minor) to G2 (Moderate) storm periods late on 04
July though early on 05 July.
Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
06 July - 01 August 2015
Solar activity is expected to be at low levels with a chance for
M-class (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate) flares from 06 July through 24 July
with the return of old Regions 2367 (S20, L=002) and 2371 (N13,
L=302). Very low to low levels are expected from 25 July through 01
August.
No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is
expected to be at high levels from 07-08 July and again from 12-15
July in response to recurrent CH HSS activity.
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at active levels on 06
July as a recurrent negative polarity CH HSS persists. Unsettled to
G1 (Minor) storm conditions are expected from 10-11 July due to the
arrival of a recurrent positive polarity CH HSS. G1 (Minor) to G2
(Moderate) geomagnetic storm conditions are expected once again from
31 July through 01 August due to the return of the recurrent
negative polarity CH HSS.
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![Weekly Propagation Summary - 2015 Jul 06 16:10 UTC]()
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