[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2015 Jul 05 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

This e-mail posting is from the Radio Propagation Reflector that you're 
currently subscribed to.  Refer to the end of this e-mail for directions on how 
to change your subscription options, or to unsubscribe.
_______________________-start-_________________

Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2015 Jul 05 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity declined to very low levels with a few B-class flares observed from Regions 2376 (N12W04, Eao/beta), 2378 (S17E39, Cso/beta) and 2381 (N15E50, Dao/beta). Region 2376 underwent minor decay in area, but a slight increase in spot count while exhibiting some east/west elongation. Region 2378 exhibited minor penumbral decay and consolidation in its trailer spot area. Region 2381 showed some leader spot consolidation and intermediate spot growth. The remaining five active regions on the visible disk were either stable or in decay.

An eruptive prominence, centered near N31E90, was observed in SDO/AIA imagery beginning at 04/1915 UTC. Coronagraph imagery and its location suggests that the coronal mass ejection (CME) is directed away from the Sun-Earth line. No additional CMEs were detected in available coronagraph imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a slight chance for M-class (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) flares over the next three days (05-07 Jul).

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels at the beginning of the period with a peak flux of 4,500 pfu observed at 04/1235 UTC. Flux values decreased to moderate levels by 04/1440 UTC and further decreased to normal levels by 04/2000 UTC due to increased geomagnetic field activity. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels throughout the period. Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to moderate levels for the remainder of day one (05 Jul) and return to moderate to high levels on days two and three (06-07 Jul). The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels throughout the forecast period (05-07 Jul).

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters reflected an enhanced solar wind environment due to the onset of a co-rotating interaction region (CIR) in advance of a negative polarity coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS). Solar wind speed increased from initial values near 350 km/s to around 600 km/s by 04/2023 UTC. Wind speeds then decreased to about 500 km/s and maintained that speed through the end-of-period.

IMF total field strength (Bt) ranged from 2 nT to a peak of 23 nT around 04/1900 UTC. By periods end, Bt values hovered around 7-8 nT. The Bz component generally varied between +10 nT to -13 nT through about 05/0300 UTC, briefly reaching a maximum southward component of -22 nT at 04/1911 UTC. After 05/0300 UTC, Bz didnt vary much beyond +/- 5 nT. The phi angle was in a predominately negative (towards) solar sector, consistent with the influence of the negative polarity CH HSS. Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected to remain enhanced due to continued CH HSS influence on day one (05 Jul) and through midday on day two (06 Jul) when CH HSS effects begin to wane. CH HSS influence is expected to subside by late day two/early day three (07 Jul) with solar wind parameters expected to slowly return to background levels.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels until 04/1935 UTC when G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm conditions caused by the onset of a CIR/CH HSS were observed. Field conditions increased to G2 (Moderate) levels at 05/0247 UTC, but relaxed to G1 (minor) storm conditions by 05/0600 UTC and further decreased to unsettled levels through periods end.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm levels for the remainder of day one (05 Jul) and unsettled to active levels on day two (06 Jul) due to continued CH HSS effects. A return to quiet to unsettled field activity is expected by day three (07 Jul) as CH HSS influence subsides.

Don't forget to visit our live space weather and radio propagation web site, at: http://SunSpotWatch.com/

Live Aurora mapping is at http://aurora.sunspotwatch.com/

If you are on Twitter, please follow these two users: + https://Twitter.com/NW7US + https://Twitter.com/hfradiospacewx

Get the space weather and radio propagation self-study course, today. Visit http://nw7us.us/swc for the latest sale and for more information!

Check out the stunning view of our Sun in action, as seen during the last five years with the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zXN-MdoGM9g

We're on Facebook: http://NW7US.us/swhfr

Live data: SunSpotWatch.com

_______________________________________________
Propagation mailing list
Propagation@contesting.com

To change your subscription settings, or to unsubscribe, visit:
http://lists.contesting.com/mailman/listinfo/propagation