[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2015 Jul 04 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

This e-mail posting is from the Radio Propagation Reflector that you're 
currently subscribed to.  Refer to the end of this e-mail for directions on how 
to change your subscription options, or to unsubscribe.
_______________________-start-_________________

Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2015 Jul 04 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity reached moderate levels this period. Region 2378 (S16E50, Dso/beta) produced an impulsive M1/1n flare at 03/1251 UTC which was the largest event of the period. The region also produced a pair of C1 flares over the past 24 hours. Region 2378 underwent minor trailer spot consolidation. Region 2376 (N12E16, Eao/beta) underwent minor penumbral growth in its leader and some trailer spot decay. New Regions 2380 (N08W23, Cro/beta) and 2381 (N16E63, Cao/beta) were numbered this period. No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) were observed. Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a slight chance for M-class (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) flares over the next three days (04-06 Jul).

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at high levels with a peak flux of 5,790 pfu observed at 03/1545 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to remain at high levels on day one (04 Jul) and decrease to normal to moderate levels on day two (05 Jul) due to the onset of a co-rotating interaction region (CIR) preceding the influence of a negative polarity coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS). A return to moderate to high flux levels are expected by day three (06 Jul) due to CH HSS effects. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels throughout the forecast period (04-06 Jul).

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters were indicative of a nominal solar wind regime. Solar wind speeds gradually increased from initial values near 310 km/s to end-of-period values near 350 km/s. IMF total field ranged from 1-7 nT while the Bz component was mostly northward throughout the period to +6 nT with some southward excursions to -6 nT late in the period. The phi angle transitioned from a positive (away from the Sun) solar sector orientation to a negative (toward the Sun) sector orientation at around 03/1830 UTC, remained in a predominately negative orientation through about 04/0600 UTC and finished the period variable between positive and negative.

Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected to become enhanced late on day one (04 Jul) through day two (05 Jul) due to the onset of a CIR preceding the influence of a negative polarity CH HSS. This coronal hole produced solar wind speeds in excess of 600 km/s last rotation, but our proximity to the summer solstice suggests that this feature will be less impactful this rotation.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at quiet to isolated unsettled levels this period under an ambient solar wind environment.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (04 Jul) due to the onset of a CIR late in the day. A recurrent negative polarity CH HSS is expected to become geoeffective midday on day two (05 Jul) prompting geomagnetic field activity to increase to active to G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm levels. Field conditions are likely to decrease to quiet to active levels on day three (06 Jul) as CH HSS influence begins to subside.

Don't forget to visit our live space weather and radio propagation web site, at: http://SunSpotWatch.com/

Live Aurora mapping is at http://aurora.sunspotwatch.com/

If you are on Twitter, please follow these two users: + https://Twitter.com/NW7US + https://Twitter.com/hfradiospacewx

Get the space weather and radio propagation self-study course, today. Visit http://nw7us.us/swc for the latest sale and for more information!

Check out the stunning view of our Sun in action, as seen during the last five years with the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zXN-MdoGM9g

We're on Facebook: http://NW7US.us/swhfr

Live data: SunSpotWatch.com

_______________________________________________
Propagation mailing list
Propagation@contesting.com

To change your subscription settings, or to unsubscribe, visit:
http://lists.contesting.com/mailman/listinfo/propagation