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[Propagation+Space Weather] Weekly Propagation Summary - 2015 Jul 20 16:

To: propagation@contesting.com
Subject: [Propagation+Space Weather] Weekly Propagation Summary - 2015 Jul 20 16:10 UTC
From: nw7us@sunspotwatch.com
Reply-to: Practical radio-wave propagation and space weather <propagation@contesting.com>
Date: Mon, 20 Jul 2015 16:10:17 +0000
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Here is this week's space weather and geophysical report, issued 2015 Jul 20 0508 UTC.

Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 13 - 19 July 2015

Solar activity began the period at very low levels on 13 Jul but increased to low levels on 14 Jul with C1 flares from Region 2381 (N14, L=074, class/area Eko/550 on 08 Jul) and 2387 (N17, L=271, class/area Dai/120 on 18 Jul) at 14/0925 UTC and 14/1210 UTC respectively. Very low levels were observed on 15-17 Jul. Ground observatories reported a 22 degree filament eruption, centered near N39E36 at 16/1453-1643 UTC. The associated CME was not geoeffective. Region 2388 (N08, L=024, class/area Cao/020 on 16 Jul) produced a C1 flare at 18/1442 UTC and was accompanied by a Type II radio sweep (est speed 418 km/s). A CME was later observed in SOHO/LASCO C2 coronagraph imagery erupting from the west limb at 18/1512 UTC with an estimated plane of sky speed of 337 km/s. This event is not expected to be geoeffective. A long duration event (LDE) C2 flare was observed at 19/1040 UTC. The LDE was associated with a 23 degree long filament eruption located in the SW quadrant centered near S32W52. CME analysis, and subsequent WSA-Enlil model output, revealed a possible weak glancing blow from the northern flank of the SW-directed CME expected to arrive at Earth early on 23 Jul.

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at moderate levels on 13 Jul. High levels were reached from 14-19 Jul due to effects from a coronal hole high speed stream.

Geomagnetic field activity reached minor storm levels on 13 Jul due to effects from a positive polarity coronal hole high speed stream. Mostly quiet conditions with isolated unsettled periods were observed from 14-16 Jul as coronal hole effects subsided. Quiet conditions were observed for the remainder of the period.

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 20 July - 15 August 2015

Solar activity is expected to be very low to low from 20-27 Jul. Moderate levels are likely from 28 Jul through 10 Aug due to the return of old Region 2381 followed by a return to very low to low levels for the remainder of the period.

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to remain at high levels from 20-22 Jul before an anticipated glancing blow from the 19 Jul CME is expected to redistribute. Normal to moderate levels are expected from 23-26 Jul followed by a return to high levels from 27-30 Jul following elevated wind speeds from a combination of the CME and a positive polarity coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS). High flux levels are expected from 03-05 Aug and 10-15 Aug following recurrent negative and positive polarity high speed streams respectively.

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at quiet to active levels on 20 Jul due to influence from a positive polarity CH HSS followed by quiet conditions from 21-22 Jul as effects subside. Unsettled to active conditions are expected from 23-24 Jul due to a possible glancing blow from the 19 Jul CME followed in close succession by a recurrent positive polarity HSS. Quiet conditions are expected to prevail from 25-30 Jul. Unsettled to active conditions are expected from 31 Jul-02 Aug due to a recurrent negative polarity CH HSS, with minor storms likely on 01 Aug when the HSS is at its peak strength. Mostly quiet conditions are expected to return from 03-05 Aug. Minor storm conditions are likely from 06-07 Aug due to another recurrent positive polarity HSS, followed by a steady decrease to active and then unsettled conditions from 08-10 Aug as effects wane. Mostly quiet conditions are expected for the remainder of the forecast period.

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Weekly Propagation Summary - 2015 Jul 20 16:10 UTC

Live data and images: SunSpotWatch.com

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