[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2015 Jul 19 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2015 Jul 19 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was at low levels. Region 2388 (N14W87, Bxo/beta) produced a C1 flare at 18/1442 UTC with an associated Type II (418 km/s) radio sweep and a non-Earth directed coronal mass ejection (CME) first observed in SOHO/LASCO C2 imagery at 18/1512 UTC. Only minor variations in areal coverage were observed in Regions 2388 and 2387 (N17E27, Dso/beta).

Two large filament eruptions were observed in SDO/AIA 304 and H-alpha imagery. The first was an 12 degree long filament structure centered near N20W49 that erupted between 19/0036 UTC and 19/0247 UTC. An associated CME was first observed in SOHO/LASCO C2 imagery beginning at 19/0400 UTC with the ejecta directed to the NW. The second was a 23 degree long filament centered near S32W52 that was seen erupting between 19/0650 UTC and 19/0922 UTC. A C2 flare occurred at 19/1040 UTC associated with the eruption. Analysis of both events are pending as coronagraph imagery becomes available.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for C-class flares and a slight chance for an M-class (R1-Minor) event over the next three days (19-21 Jul).

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels levels with a maximum flux of 5020 pfu at 17/1640 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background levels throughout the period.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be at moderate to high levels for the forecast period (19-21 Jul). The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels (below S1-Minor).

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind speed continued to decrease over the period from approximately 340 km/s to near 300 km/s. Total field was between 2 nT and 4 nT while the Bz component ranged from +/-3 nT. Phi angle was predominantly in a positive (away) sector.

Forecast: A trans-equatorial positive polarity coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS) is expected to become geoeffective by late on 19 July to early on 20 July. Effects are expected to persist through 20 July before returning to ambient conditions.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet.

Forecast: By late on 19 July, the onset of a positive polarity CH HSS is expected to cause quiet to unsettled conditions. Quiet to active conditions are expected on day two (20 July) as CH HSS effects persist. A return to mostly quiet conditions is expected by day three (21 Jul).

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