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Here is this week's space weather and geophysical report, issued 2015 Jul 20 0508 UTC.
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
13 - 19 July 2015
Solar activity began the period at very low levels on 13 Jul but
increased to low levels on 14 Jul with C1 flares from Region 2381
(N14, L=074, class/area Eko/550 on 08 Jul) and 2387 (N17, L=271,
class/area Dai/120 on 18 Jul) at 14/0925 UTC and 14/1210 UTC
respectively. Very low levels were observed on 15-17 Jul. Ground
observatories reported a 22 degree filament eruption, centered near
N39E36 at 16/1453-1643 UTC. The associated CME was not geoeffective.
Region 2388 (N08, L=024, class/area Cao/020 on 16 Jul) produced a C1
flare at 18/1442 UTC and was accompanied by a Type II radio sweep
(est speed 418 km/s). A CME was later observed in SOHO/LASCO C2
coronagraph imagery erupting from the west limb at 18/1512 UTC with
an estimated plane of sky speed of 337 km/s. This event is not
expected to be geoeffective. A long duration event (LDE) C2 flare
was observed at 19/1040 UTC. The LDE was associated with a 23 degree
long filament eruption located in the SW quadrant centered near
S32W52. CME analysis, and subsequent WSA-Enlil model output,
revealed a possible weak glancing blow from the northern flank of
the SW-directed CME expected to arrive at Earth early on 23 Jul.
No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at
moderate levels on 13 Jul. High levels were reached from 14-19 Jul
due to effects from a coronal hole high speed stream.
Geomagnetic field activity reached minor storm levels on 13 Jul due
to effects from a positive polarity coronal hole high speed stream.
Mostly quiet conditions with isolated unsettled periods were
observed from 14-16 Jul as coronal hole effects subsided. Quiet
conditions were observed for the remainder of the period.
Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
20 July - 15 August 2015
Solar activity is expected to be very low to low from 20-27 Jul.
Moderate levels are likely from 28 Jul through 10 Aug due to the
return of old Region 2381 followed by a return to very low to low
levels for the remainder of the period.
No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is
expected to remain at high levels from 20-22 Jul before an
anticipated glancing blow from the 19 Jul CME is expected to
redistribute. Normal to moderate levels are expected from 23-26 Jul
followed by a return to high levels from 27-30 Jul following
elevated wind speeds from a combination of the CME and a positive
polarity coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS). High flux levels
are expected from 03-05 Aug and 10-15 Aug following recurrent
negative and positive polarity high speed streams respectively.
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at quiet to active
levels on 20 Jul due to influence from a positive polarity CH HSS
followed by quiet conditions from 21-22 Jul as effects subside.
Unsettled to active conditions are expected from 23-24 Jul due to a
possible glancing blow from the 19 Jul CME followed in close
succession by a recurrent positive polarity HSS. Quiet conditions
are expected to prevail from 25-30 Jul. Unsettled to active
conditions are expected from 31 Jul-02 Aug due to a recurrent
negative polarity CH HSS, with minor storms likely on 01 Aug when
the HSS is at its peak strength. Mostly quiet conditions are
expected to return from 03-05 Aug. Minor storm conditions are likely
from 06-07 Aug due to another recurrent positive polarity HSS,
followed by a steady decrease to active and then unsettled
conditions from 08-10 Aug as effects wane. Mostly quiet conditions
are expected for the remainder of the forecast period.
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![Weekly Propagation Summary - 2015 Jul 20 16:10 UTC]()
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