[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2015 Jul 18 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2015 Jul 18 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was at very low levels. The largest flare of the period was a B5/Sf at 17/1559 UTC from Region 2387 (N17E41, Dai/beta). No significant changes to the spotted regions were observed. No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections were observed.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for C-class flares and a slight chance for an M-class (R1) event over the next three days (18-20 Jul).

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels levels with a maximum flux of 7460 pfu at 17/1530 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background levels throughout the period.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be at moderate to high levels for the forecast period (18-20 Jul). The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels (below S1-Minor).

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind speed continued to decline over the period from 438 km/s to near 340 km/s. Total field ranged from 1 nT to 4 nT while the Bz component was variable between +/-4 nT. Phi angle was predominantly in a positive (away) sector.

Forecast: Ambient solar wind conditions are expected to persist, with occasional solar sector boundary changes, through 18 Jul. A trans-equatorial positive polarity coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS) is expected to become geoeffective by day two (19 Jul).

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet.

Forecast: Mostly quiet conditions are expected through early on day two (19 Jul). By mid to late on day two, the onset of a positive polarity CH HSS is expected to cause quiet to unsettled conditions with isolated active periods possible. Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected to persist into day three (20 Jul).

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Live data: SunSpotWatch.com

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