[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2015 Jul 25 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2015 Jul 25 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was at low levels. Region 2389 (S11E55, Dai/beta) produced a few C-class events; the largest was a C2/1f flare observed at 24/1755 UTC. The region showed growth in its trailer spots. New Region 2390 (S15E21, Dao/beta) showed growth during the period as it rotated into view. Region (N17W55, Bxo/beta) continued to decay as it approached the west limb. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in satellite imagery during the period.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with an increasing chance for C-class activity through the forecast period (25-27 Jul). The forecasted increase in activity is primarily due to emerging Region 2389 coupled with the return of old active Region 2381 (N15, L=076) on 26 Jul.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux increased to moderate levels with a peak flux of 466 pfu observed at 25/1200 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background levels throughout the period.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be at moderate to high levels for the forecast period (25-27 Jul) while the greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels (below S1-Minor).

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters reflected a slightly enhanced solar wind environment due to waning CME influences coupled with a geoeffective, weak positive polarity coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS). Solar wind speeds remained mostly between 390 and 490 km/s. The IMF total field strength (Bt) ranged from 6-7 nT while the Bz component did not vary much beyond +4 and -6 nT. Phi angle remained in a predominately positive (away) sector throughout the period.

Forecast: Enhanced solar wind parameters are expected to persist on day one (25 Jul) through midday on day two (26 Jul) due to waning CME effects combined with weak positive polarity CH HSS influence. By midday on 26 Jul through day three (27 Jul), weakening CH HSS effects are expected.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.

Forecast: Quiet to unsettled levels, with likely isolated active periods, are expected for day one (25 Jul) through midday on day two (26 Jul) due to waning CME effects combined with weak positive polarity CH HSS influence. From midday on 26 Jul through day three (27 Jul), quiet conditions are expected as CH HSS effects wane.

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