[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2022 Jul 25 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2022 Jul 25 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was at low levels due to an impulsive C1 x-ray event at 25/0833 UTC from a region behind the NE limb. B-class flare activity was observed from Regions 3058 (N13, L=026), 3060 (N12W69, Cro/beta) and 3062 (S25E02, Hsx/alpha). Slight area growth was observed in Region 3059 (S08W63, Hsx/alpha). All other regions were stable. New Region 3066 (S17E19, Bxo/beta) quietly emerged on the disk during the period.

An 18 degree long filament, centered near S30E23, erupted at about 24/1837 UTC as viewed in NSO/GONG and GOES-16 SUVI 195 and 304 imagery. It appeared a majority of the material was reabsorbed as no discernible CME was apparent in SOHO/LASCO imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be at low levels through 27 Jul.

Energetic Particles

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels with a peak flux of 927 pfu at 24/1815 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be moderate with a chance for high levels on 25-27 Jul. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters were in decline over the period. Solar wind speed decreased from approximately 525 km/s to near 430 km/s. Total field ranged from 4-5 nT while the Bz component varied between +/-4 nT. Phi angle was in a predominantly negative orientation.

Forecast: Solar wind speed is expected to continue to diminish on 25 Jul with a return to nominal levels on 26-27 Jul.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels under weakening negative polarity CH HSS influence.

Forecast: Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected on 25 Jul as HSS conditions wane. Mostly quiet conditions are expected on 26-27 Jul.

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Live data: SunSpotWatch.com

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