How many participants in ARRL DX (or for that matter, any other contest) enter
with the belief they may win?
Seems to me the vast majority of those who make QSOs in any contest do not
believe for one moment that they stand any chance of winning. The "medium
gun" with a single tribander at 35' and a bunch of family activities during the
contest weekend knows darned well that barring a miracle, he's not
going to end up in the Top 10 box. If he's operating (and a lot of them are)
it's because he has fun operating, not because he's going to get a plaque.
I simply don't think it matters whether a W9 stands a chance of beating a W1.
There's only about ten U.S. entrants who might, possibly, take that
into effect when deciding whether to enter or how long to participate.
--
Doug Smith W9WI
Pleasant View, TN EM66
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