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Re: [CQ-Contest] Contesting 10 years from now (2007)

To: cq-contest@contesting.com
Subject: Re: [CQ-Contest] Contesting 10 years from now (2007)
From: Igor Sokolov <ua9cdc@gmail.com>
Reply-to: ua9cdc@gmail.com
Date: Wed, 28 Mar 2018 18:06:18 +0500
List-post: <mailto:cq-contest@contesting.com>
Exactly Ria!

Things that come easy, go away easy as well. Club stations here in Russia played the major role in attracting new blood.

Big contest stations should get newcomers more involved in contesting offering seats in simple minor contests.


73, Igor UA9CDC

27.03.2018 20:02, rjairam@gmail.com пишет:
“Are there any Tech only or Tech-oriented CW sprints/contests, besides the
rookie roundup? “

Field day.

As for the CW concern, that’s largely a function of elmering. This is my
problem with some of the recent proposals - there is the expectation by
some that we will grant more privileges and things will just automatically
get better. Not saying more privileges is a bad thing, just it needs to be
done smart with the mentoring component added. Otherwise it won’t do a
thing.

That’s why I say - field day. We need more field day types of events even
if just indoors.

Ria
N2RJ
On Tue, Mar 27, 2018 at 10:22 AM Sterling Coffey <kawfey@gmail.com> wrote:

We don't hear more of them on because there are a number of barriers to
entry that tech's aren't generally willing to hurdle at that point in their
experience with the hobby.


    1. CW *is* hard; to get up to contest speeds is a big ask for a lot of
    people, only the most hams most interested in CW and disciplined to learn
    it get to that level of confidence before operating - a tiny fraction of
    techs
    2. Tech callsigns are long and op skills are lower, which causes
    varying levels of consternation in everyone involved, leading to a brutal
    or even rejected QSO (which puts a bad taste in the mouth of both the tech
    and the other op, especially for high strung contests)
    3. After all, we hams generally don't do such a good job advertising
    it or elmering techs and rookies. Anecdotally, I know of only two hams who
    contested as a tech did it all by their self, with their own gear and
    self-taught code. One of them was me, and the other was a college friend.

This was my experience anyway, as KD0BZE nearly 10 years ago. (woah, it's
time to renew!)
Are there any Tech only or Tech-oriented CW sprints/contests, besides the
rookie roundup?

On Mon, Mar 26, 2018 at 4:41 PM, rjairam@gmail.com <rjairam@gmail.com>
wrote:

“Technicians will get active contesting on their new bands, to the
chagrin of many established operators.”

Techs already have a ticket to the biggest contests today on 40, 80, 15
and 10 meters. Why don’t we hear more of them on? Even if you say “CW Is
hard” I hear tons of South American ops on 10 meters phone every contest.
It may not be open to Europe or Asia but it’s definitely open to central
and South America and the caribbean.

Bear in mind as well that the current ARRL proposal has very contest
unfriendly segments and no privileges on the most popular contest band - 20
meters. Unless of course you think they will eventually get access to more
favorable segments.

Ria
N2RJ

On Mon, Mar 26, 2018 at 5:34 PM Sterling Coffey <kawfey@gmail.com> wrote:

Younger generation chiming in with...contests are going to get a lot
less active :(

There is a huge contingent of young ops in Region 1 (mostly thanks to
YOTA) but on the other sides of the world, youth contesters are a little
less organized. That has hopefully changed with the creation of Young
Amateurs Radio Club <https://yarc.world/>, the Collegiate Initiative
<http://www.facebook.com/groups/ARRLCARI>, and some push to bring a
YOTA-like organization to IARU regions 2 and 3.

All of that pales in comparison to the age of current contesters. I
posit it's slightly lower than the average, but Sweepstakes reports don't
lie (although club calls obscure the actual operator's license year, which
for W0EEE was 1923 whilst everyone who operated was licensed for less than
5 years.

Here's my thoughts for ham radio contesting in 10 years:


    1. Drops in total logs submitted will invoke new categories for
    youth (and not just Rookie) will spring up, just like the college
    sub-competition during NAQP and Sweepstakes.
    2. New AI category
    3. New "Knobs" category
    4. Technicians will get active contesting on their new bands, to the
    chagrin of many established operators.
    5. SSB & CW will be a mainstay but digi contests will begin to
    outshine "classic" modes
    6. WSJT will flesh out the DXpedition mode into a fully fledged
    contest mode, which will allow multiple QSOs per contact
    7. Remotes will become ubiquitous and I suspect it'll be put into
    it's own category.
    8. More livestreaming. I'd love to see a Ham Radio category on
    Twitch.tv!
    9. contest score reporting will be adopted by a majority; no need to
    upload logs as it's being uploaded in realtime on a qso-by-qso basis
    10. Additionally, logs are instantaneously and irrefutably
    cross-checked for authenticity using signed blockchain technology on the
    ethereum (or similar) network (HamRadioCoin is a thing already!
    <https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/hamradiocoin/>)
    11. Bigdata/Neural networking intertwined with real time conditions
    will tell ops which band, mode, and beam azimuth and elevation pattern to
    operate for maximum rate
    12. There will be no need to ask QRL? Your radio determines the best
    TX frequency in the band and decodes everything in the band simultaneously
    (so there's also no need to reply to a CQ at the same frequency)
    1. Expanding on that, there will be AI contests solely dedicated to
       automatic QSOs (still requiring some semblance of operator intervention 
to
       meet regulations) running at rates pushing 1200QSO/hr
       13. Radio equipment continues their push towards SDR and
    miniaturization
    14. New inductor technology shrinks the size and cost of linear
    amplifiers and power supplies
    15. But an elecraft K3, FT-*000, TS-990, Flex 6*00 etc...will still
    sell for the same price as they are today.

Sterling, N0SSC


On Mon, Mar 26, 2018 at 11:10 AM, rjairam@gmail.com <rjairam@gmail.com>
wrote:

My take on 10 years from now:

A lot of the old guard will sadly be SK, with not a lot of replacement
from younger generation, unless we do something.

Top 3 US for the majors will almost exclusively be remote operation.
The only problem is who will be driving.

Assisted and non-assisted will be combined for some majors. Sad to see
it go, but I am getting used to the idea.

CW contest entries will remain stable while SSB and digital may see a
modest boost.

Digital (HF) contests will include weak signal (WSJT) modes.

VHF contests will be nearly all weak signal (WSJT) modes on 6 meters.
It's pretty much that way now.

HOAs - the South and Southwest US will continue to have tons of HOA
issues. As the US East Coast slows in population growth and new
housing starts, that's where there will be fewer restrictions. But
that comes with two caveats - winter and cost of living, unless you do
remote operation.

Hams will still like knobbed radios although the market for SDRs is
growing.

73
Ria
N2RJ




On Sun, Mar 25, 2018 at 5:32 PM, Mark <markzl3ab@gmail.com> wrote:
I was looking for something else and stumbled across this on the
interweb.
I hope ES5TV doesn't mind me posting the link.  It sure make
interesting
reading now.

http://www.lhv.ee/images/files/2017.pdf

Any bets on the next ten years?

73
Mark ZL3AB
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