:Issued: 2004 Aug 07 1213 UTC
:Product: documentation at http://sidc.oma.be/products/meu
#------------------------------------------------------------------------------#
# DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium) #
#------------------------------------------------------------------------------#
SIDC URSIGRAM 40807
SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 07 Aug 2004, 1134 UTC
SIDC FORECAST (valid from 1230UT, 07 Aug 2004 until 09 Aug 2004)
SOLAR FLARES : Quiet conditions (<50% probability of C-class flares)
GEOMAGNETISM : Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)
SOLAR PROTONS : Quiet
PREDICTIONS FOR 07 Aug 2004 10CM FLUX: 095 / AP: 018
PREDICTIONS FOR 08 Aug 2004 10CM FLUX: 101 / AP: 017
PREDICTIONS FOR 09 Aug 2004 10CM FLUX: 106 / AP: 007
COMMENT: Solar activity continues at very low level. Only small B-flares were
observed in the past 24 hours. Catania sunspot group 87 (NOAA 0655) is still the
largest group visible, but is decaying. No flares are expected from this group.
At the eastern limb, we now see three small sunspot groups. The biggest one of
these - and the most likely to produce flares - is Catania sunspot group 90
(NOAA 0656). However, so far all groups only show small-scale activity and there
is only a slight chance for a C-class flare.
The solar wind speed has risen from 340 km/s to 400 km/s in the past three
hours, and the IMF is pointing mostly southwards since midnight (UT), with short
periods of values below -10nT. These conditions, which are probably caused by a
small coronal hole, are expected to give rise to active geomagnetic conditions
(K=4), with a small chance for a minor storm.
SOLAR INDICES FOR 6 Aug 2004
SUNSPOT INDEX : 079
10CM SOLAR FLUX : 091
AK CHAMBON LA FORET : 013
AK WINGST : ///
ESTIMATED AP : 008
NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX END LOC XRAY OP 10CM TYPE Catania NOAA NOTE
NONE
END
BT
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73,
Thomas F. Giella, KN4LF
Plant City, FL, USA
Grid Square EL87WX
Lat & Long 27 58 31 44N 82 09 51 98W
NWS Tampa Bay, FL SKYWARN Observer # HIL-249
SWFWMD Rainfall Network Observer #574 Thackery
CWOP Weather Station #CW2111
PODXS 070 PSK31 Club Member #349
KN4LF Solar Space Weather & Geomagnetic Data Archive:
http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf5.htm
KN4LF Daily HF/MF Radio Propagation Outlook: http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf6.htm
KN4LF HF/MF Radio Propagation Theory Notes: http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf8.htm
KN4LF Amateur & SWL Radio History: http://www.kn4lf.com
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