Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 221 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Aug 2004
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07/2100Z
to 08/2100Z: Solar activity has been low. Region 656 (S12E45) has
produced several events through the last 24 hours including a long
duration B5 flare at 08/1433 UT and a C2/Sf flare at 08/1724 UTC.
The region has shown continued growth in both white light coverage
and sunspot count and has developed a magnetic beta-gamma magnetic
configuration. A full halo CME was observed today in the SOHO/LASCO
imagery. The event was first seen in C2 at 08/0854 UTC. An
analysis of the data indicate that this was a backside event and not
directed toward Earth.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low.
Region 656 is capable of producing an isolated M-class event.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. The solar wind speeds
that started out the last 24 hour period at above 480 km/s has
gradually declined to around 400 km/s.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled with isolated active conditions.
III. Event Probabilities 09 Aug-11 Aug
Class M 15/20/20
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 08 Aug 105
Predicted 09 Aug-11 Aug 105/110/110
90 Day Mean 08 Aug 106
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 07 Aug 011/020
Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Aug 005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Aug-11 Aug 010/015-010/010-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Aug-11 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor storm 05/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/15/15
Minor storm 10/05/05
Major-severe storm 05/01/01
73,
Thomas F. Giella, KN4LF
Plant City, FL, USA
Grid Square EL87WX
Lat & Long 27 58 31 44N 82 09 51 98W
NWS Tampa Bay, FL SKYWARN Observer # HIL-249
SWFWMD Rainfall Network Observer #574 Thackery
CWOP Weather Station #CW2111
PODXS 070 PSK31 Club Member #349
KN4LF Solar Space Weather & Geomagnetic Data Archive:
http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf5.htm
KN4LF Daily HF/MF Radio Propagation Outlook: http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf6.htm
KN4LF HF/MF Radio Propagation Theory Notes: http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf8.htm
KN4LF Amateur & SWL Radio History: http://www.kn4lf.com
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