Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 222 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Aug 2004
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08/2100Z
to 09/2100Z: Solar activity was low. Today's activity consisted of
numerous C-class flares from Region 656 (S12E31). This region grew
rapidly during the past 24 hours and has formed into a compact
configuration that includes a magnetic delta configuration and also
is exhibiting magnetic shear along part of the inversion line. The
other two numbered regions on the disk were quiet and stable.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. Additional C-class flares are expected from Region 656.
There is a good chance for an isolated M-class flare from this
region over the next three days. There is a slight chance for a
major flare from this region as well, especially if the current
growth trend continues.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet to unsettled during the past
24 hours, with the exception of an active period from 0600-0900 UTC.
The enhanced activity corresponded to a solar sector boundary
crossing observed in the solar wind data.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be predominantly unsettled for the next three days
(10-12 August), with a slight chance for isolated active periods.
III. Event Probabilities 10 Aug-12 Aug
Class M 40/40/40
Class X 10/10/10
Proton 05/05/05
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 09 Aug 114
Predicted 10 Aug-12 Aug 115/120/125
90 Day Mean 09 Aug 106
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 08 Aug 002/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Aug 010/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Aug-12 Aug 010/010-010/010-008/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Aug-12 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 25/25/20
Minor storm 15/15/15
Major-severe storm 05/05/05
B. High Latitudes
Active 35/35/30
Minor storm 15/15/15
Major-severe storm 05/05/05
73,
Thomas F. Giella, KN4LF
Plant City, FL, USA
Grid Square EL87WX
Lat & Long 27 58 31 44N 82 09 51 98W
NWS Tampa Bay, FL SKYWARN Observer # HIL-249
SWFWMD Rainfall Network Observer #574 Thackery
CWOP Weather Station #CW2111
PODXS 070 PSK31 Club Member #349
KN4LF Solar Space Weather & Geomagnetic Data Archive:
http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf5.htm
KN4LF Daily HF/MF Radio Propagation Outlook: http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf6.htm
KN4LF HF/MF Radio Propagation Theory Notes: http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf8.htm
KN4LF Amateur & SWL Radio History: http://www.kn4lf.com
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