KN4LF Solar Space Weather Geomagnetic and Propagation Outlook
KN4LF Solar Space Weather & Geomagnetic Data Archive:
http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf5.htm
Posted 1700 UTC August 14, 2004
As I first forecasted back on August 04, 2004 we are seeing a dramatic increase
in solar and space weather. Fortunately though a sharp rise in the daily
sunspot (160) and solar flux (156) numbers in conjunction with quiet
geomagnetic conditions of Kp-1/2, are rewarding us with some pretty decent HF
propagation conditions on the higher bands. Unfortunately that will all come to
an end in a couple of days.
Sunspot group #10566 located at S13W22 with a twisted beta-gamma-delta magnetic
configuration has produced 65 C class, 8 M class and 1 X class flare since
rotating into view on August 08, 2004. A partially geo-effective (Earth facing)
Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) was released in the vicinity of the huge X class
solar flare and should arrive at Earth by Monday August 16, 2004. We should see
active Kp-4 to minor Kp-5 geomagnetic storming, with perhaps a short period of
moderate Kp-6 geomagnetic storming.
I expect sunspot group #10656 to continue as a prolific solar flare producer
much like it did in July as sunspot group #10649. Therefore we will continue to
see many C & M class solar flares and probably more huge X class flares,
associated CME's and geomagnetic storming.
What can we expect for propagation conditions during the next 3 days? Barring
any major hiccups from sunspot group #10656:
LF- Poor to fair
MF- Fair
HF-
High Latitude- Fair to good
Mid Latitude- Good
Low Latitude- Good
Degrading by August 16, 2004 to:
LF- Poor
MF- Fair To Poor
HF-
High Latitude- Fair to poor
Mid Latitude- Good to fair
Low Latitude- Good
By the way the outlooks I'm currently producing are very abbreviated compared
to normal. If you would like to
peruse one of my complete outlooks go to http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf6.htm
73,
Thomas F. Giella, KN4LF
Plant City, FL, USA
Grid Square EL87WX
Lat & Long 27 58 31 44N 82 09 51 98W
NWS Tampa Bay, FL SKYWARN Observer # HIL-249
SWFWMD Rainfall Network Observer #574 Thackery
CWOP Weather Station #CW2111
PODXS 070 PSK31 Club Member #349
KN4LF Solar Space Weather & Geomagnetic Data Archive:
http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf5.htm
KN4LF Daily HF/MF Radio Propagation Outlook: http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf6.htm
KN4LF HF/MF Radio Propagation Theory Notes: http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf8.htm
KN4LF Amateur & SWL Radio History: http://www.kn4lf.com
---
Outgoing mail is certified virus free by Grisoft AVG 6.0.
Checked by AVG anti-virus system (http://www.grisoft.com).
Version: 6.0.737 / Virus Database: 491 - Release Date: 8/11/2004
_______________________________________________
Propagation mailing list
Propagation@contesting.com
http://lists.contesting.com/mailman/listinfo/propagation
|