KN4LF Solar Space Weather Geomagnetic and Propagation Outlook
KN4LF Solar Space Weather & Geomagnetic Data Archive:
http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf5.htm
Posted 1600 UTC August 18, 2004
Recurrent sunspot group #10656 (old #10649) with it's twisted beta-gamma-delta
magnetic configuration is now located at S14W77 and has now rotated around the
western limb of the Sun. This sunspot group was once again a prolific solar
flare producer with 107 C class, 25 M class and 1 X class solar flare since
it's reappearance on August 08, 2004.
It also produced so many Coronal Mass Ejections (CME's) that I have lost track.
What was key though is that none of the CME's were fully geo-effective (Earth
facing). The end result was no major geomagnetic storming. During the past five
days the Kp only reached a 4, which represents active conditions, for a six
hour period. I had predicted active Kp-4 to minor Kp-5 geomagnetic storming,
with perhaps a short period of moderate Kp-6 geomagnetic storming. It can be
very difficult to predict the impact on our ionosphere partially geoeffective
CME's.
One thing I did notice though were quite a few fairly strong radio blackout's
cause my some M class level solar flares. Yesterday I was listening to the BBC
on 21470 kc during the afternoon when it abruptly disappeared, WWV on 20000 kc
also disappeared. Both came back within an hour though. Radio blackouts impact
lower HF frequencies first, moving higher in frequency depending on the
strength of the solar flare.
With no geomagnetic storming of consequence, a daily solar flux level as high
as 149 and a daily sunspot number as high as 160, overall we have seen some
pretty good "summer" HF propagation conditions during the past 5 days.
The major sunspot group currently visible and nearing geo-effective position at
N09E20 is recurrent #10661 (old #10652). As #10652 last month it was also a
very active group producing many solar flares. However this time around it's
been unusually quiet. It currently contains a beta-gamma magnetic configuration
capable of producing C class and small isolated M class solar flares.
We have a small recurring Coronal Hole #110 (old #106) that will be arriving in
geo-effective position by August 22, 2004. We also have several partially
geoeffective CME's that could impact our magnetosphere during the next several
days. We will also see a slow fall in daily solar flux and sunspot numbers.
These features will produce periods of Kp-3 unsettled to Kp-4 active
conditions, with isolated periods of Kp-5 minor geomagnetic storming possible.
What propagation conditions can be expected in the next five day period?
LF- Poor to fair
MF- Fair
HF-
High Latitude- Fair to good
Mid Latitude- Good
Low Latitude- Good
Possibly degrading to periods:
LF- Poor
MF- Fair To Poor
HF-
High Latitude- Fair to poor
Mid Latitude- Good to fair
Low Latitude- Good
73,
Thomas F. Giella, KN4LF
Plant City, FL, USA
Grid Square EL87WX
Lat & Long 27 58 31 44N 82 09 51 98W
kn4lf@arrl.net
KN4LF Solar Space Weather & Geomagnetic Data Archive:
http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf5.htm
KN4LF Amateur & SWL Radio History: http://www.kn4lf.com
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