KN4LF Daily HF/LF/MF Radio Propagation Outlook #2004-005
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Date Format is MM/DD/YYYY
Published Friday 12/03/2004 At 1800 UTC Valid 12/03-09/2004
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During the period 12/03-04 quiet to unsettled (Kp 1-3) geomagnetic conditions
are probable.
During the period 12/04-05 minor to moderate (Kp 5-6) geomagnetic storming is
probable.
During the period 12/05-06 moderate to major (Kp-6-7) geomagnetic storming is
possible.
The chance of polar cap absorption on high latitude propagation paths due to
excessive energetic protons >10 Mev (10+0) is low.
The chance of daylight radio blackouts from solar flares is medium.
GLOBAL LF UNDER 300 KC PROPAGATION CONDITIONS EXPECTED-
Daytime- Fair.
Nighttime- Poor, Becoming Very Poor on 12/04.
GLOBAL HF 3000-30000 KC PROPAGATION CONDITIONS EXPECTED-
Low Latitude- Good, Becoming Fair On 12/05.
Mid Latitude- Good, Becoming Fair To Poor On 12/05.
High Latitude- Fair, Becoming Poor To Very Poor On 12/04.
GLOBAL MF 300-3000 KC PROPAGATION CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH AN EMPHASIS ON THE
MF AM BROADCAST BAND, 160 METERS AND 120 METERS-
-Expect fair "Northern Hemisphere" domestic propagation conditions on east-west
paths, becoming poor on 12/05.
*Expect fair domestic conditions on north "TO" south paths in the "Northern
Hemisphere" out to approximately 1100 miles, becoming poor on 12/05.
+Expect Fair domestic conditions on south "TO" north paths in the "Northern
Hemisphere" out to approximately 1100 miles, becoming good on 12/05.
-Expect poor "Southern Hemisphere" domestic propagation conditions on east-west
paths.
+Expect fair domestic conditions on north "TO" south paths in the "Southern
Hemisphere" out to approximately 1100 miles, becoming good on 12/05.
*Expect poor conditions on south "TO" north paths in the "Southern Hemisphere"
out to approximately 1100 miles, becoming very poor on 12/05.
Equatorial region domestic propagation conditions out to approximately 1100
miles should be fair to good.
"High latitude" Northern Hemisphere (TA) Trans Atlantic, (TI) Trans Indian,
(TP) Trans Pacific and cross equatorial propagation conditions in excess of
approximately 3200 miles should be fair, becoming poor on 12/05.
"High latitude" Southern Hemisphere (TA) Trans Atlantic, (TI) Trans Indian,
(TP) Trans Pacific and cross equatorial propagation conditions in excess of
approximately 3200 miles should be poor, becoming very poor on 12/05.
"Mid latitude" Northern Hemisphere (TA) Trans Atlantic, (TI) Trans Indian, (TP)
Trans Pacific and cross equatorial propagation conditions in excess of
approximately 3200 miles should be good, then becoming fair on 12/05.
"Mid latitude" Southern Hemisphere (TA) Trans Atlantic, (TI) Trans Indian, (TP)
Trans Pacific and cross equatorial propagation conditions in excess of
approximately 3200 miles should be fair, then becoming poor on 12/05.
"Low latitude" Northern Hemisphere (TA) Trans Atlantic, (TI) Trans Indian, (TP)
Trans Pacific propagation conditions in excess of approximately 3200 miles
should be good, then becoming fair on 12/05.
"Low latitude" Southern Hemisphere (TA) Trans Atlantic, (TI) Trans Indian, (TP)
Trans Pacific propagation conditions in excess of approximately 3200 miles
should be fair.
Equatorial region to Northern Hemisphere "mid latitude" propagation conditions
in excess of approximately 3200 miles should be good then becoming fair on
12/05.
Equatorial region to Southern Hemisphere "mid latitude" propagation conditions
in excess of 3200 miles should be good, then becoming fair on 12/05.
Equatorial region to Northern Hemisphere "high latitude" propagation conditions
in excess of approximately 3200 miles should be fair, then becoming poor on
12/05.
Equatorial region to Southern Hemisphere "high latitude" propagation conditions
in excess of 3200 miles should be poor, then becoming fair on 12/05.
Global LF/MF/HF propagation conditions should begin recovering on 12/07/04
barring any new space weather events.
Propagation Forecast Scales-
Excellent- +1 db Over S9 Or better
Good- S7-9
Fair- S4-6
Poor- S1-3
GLOBAL NOISE (QRN) OUTLOOK-
U.S. LIGHTNING STRIKE DATA
(See Where Your QRN Is Coming From)
Sorry but global views of near real time lightning strikes are no longer
available.
http://www.lightningstorm.com/tux/jsp/gpg/lex1/mapdisplay_free.jsp;jsessionid=70301187101071113657379
During the 7 day outlook period there will be "moderate lightning induced QRN
levels in low latitude areas of the Northern Hemisphere due to the proximity of
the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) and tropical cyclones.
Northern hemisphere mid latitude regions can expect "low to moderate" lightning
induced QRN tied to winter season thunderstorms, cold/warm/occluded fronts,
associated extra-tropical cold core low pressure systems and El Nino.
Northern hemisphere high latitude regions can expect "very low to low"
lightning induced QRN tied to winter season thunderstorms, cold/warm/occluded
fronts and associated extra-tropical cold core low pressure systems.
During the outlook period there will be "high" lightning induced QRN levels in
low latitude areas of the Southern Hemisphere due to the proximity of the Inter
Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) and tropical cyclones.
Southern hemisphere mid latitude regions can expect "high" lightning induced
QRN, tied to summer season thunderstorms and tropical cyclones.
Southern hemisphere high latitude regions can expect "moderate" lightning
induced QRN tied to summer season thunderstorms, cold/warm/occluded fronts and
associated extra-tropical cold core low pressure systems.
SOLAR, SPACE WEATHER AND GEOMAGNETIC INDICES FOR 11/19-25/2004-
Sunspot Groups-
Sunspot group #'s 10707 at S14W37 with a beta-gamma twisted magnetic signature
and 10708 at N09E01 were capable of producing large M class solar flares.
Unfortunately though even small C class solar flares can impact MF propagation
conditions in a negative manner.
Solar Flux Readings- 105 to 115
SEC Sunspot Number- 40 to 66
Solar Wind Speed- 352-729
X-Ray Solar Flares- C-11 M-2 X-0
Averaged Background X-Ray Flux- B1.6 to B2.5
Elevated Energetic Protons >10 MeV (10+o)- None
Geo or partially geoeffective (Earth Facing) Coronal Mass Ejections- 2
Two full halo geoeffective (Earth Facing) Coronal Mass Ejections (CME'S)
occurred during the period. CME #1 occurred on 12/01/04 and #2 occurred on
12/02/04. They are both expected to impact Earth beginning on 12/04-05/04.
Recurrent Coronal Hole #128 which became geoeffective beginning on 11/21-23/04,
finally lost it's negative impact on Earth's magnetic field on UTC 11/26/04. CH
#129 was geoeffective on UTC 11/26-28/04. CH #130 was geoeffective on
11/20-12/1-04.
The Ap index has been at quiet to minor storm levels, with a range of 2 to 48.
The Kp index has been at quiet to minor storm levels, with a range of 0 to 5.
Here are some "general" guidelines concerning correlation of propagation
indices to actual expected MF propagation conditions.
1.) Dropping indices numbers are better.
2.) For medium frequencies a solar flux under 150, under 100 better, 70 is best
for E layer multi hop.
Keep in mind though that the 10.7 cm (2800 mhz) solar flux index is not a
"reliable" gauge of ionization in our atmosphere, as the energy of photons at
this frequency is to low on the order of one million times. However most are
used to solar flux and sunspot number and it's a hard habit to break. A better
indicator is the background x-ray flux. See #7.
3.) Solar flux of at least 100 for E valley-F layer ducting mechanism.
4.) Previous 24 hour Ap index under 10, under 7 for several days
consecutively is best.
5.) Previous 3 hour Kp index under 3 for mid latitude paths, under 2 for
high latitude paths, 0-1 for several days consecutively is best.
6.) Energetic protons no greater then 10 MeV (10+0) for 160/120 meters and
no greater then (10-1) on MF broadcast band.
7.) Background x-ray flux levels less than C1 for several days consecutively
for 160/120 meters and less then B9 for MF broadcast band but A9 or less is
best.
8.) No current STRATWARM alert.
9.) IMF Bz with a (+) sign, indicates a lesser chance of high latitude path
auroral absorption/unpredictable refraction or scattering of MF RF signals,
when the Kp is above 3.
10.) A -50 or better towards a positive number Dst index during the recovery
time after a geomagnetic storm, as related to the Equatorial Ring Current.
TODAY'S PROPAGATION LESSON -
None this week.
Space Weather Scales-
Kp Indices-
G5 = Extreme Storm - Kp = 9
G4 = Severe Storm - Kp = 8
G3 = Strong Storm - Kp = 7
G2 = Moderate Storm - Kp = 6
G1 = Minor Storm - Kp = 5
Active - Kp = 4
Unsettled - Kp = 3
Ap Indices-
Ap 100-400 Severe Storm
Ap 50-99 Major Storm
Ap 30-49 Minor Storm
Ap 16-29 Active
Ap 8-15 Unsettled
Ap 0-7 Quiet
Correlation Of Kp To Ap Indices-
K- 0= A- 0
K- 1= A- 3
K- 2= A- 7
K- 3= A- 15
K- 4= A- 27
K- 5= A- 48
K- 6= A- 80
K- 7= A- 140
K- 8= A- 240
K- 9= A- 400
Standard Disclaimer-
Note! I use "RAW" public domain data from the NOAA Space Environment Center, as
well as other U.S. government organizations, to produce my "not for profit"
propagation forecast outlooks. This data is gathered and made public by the
U.S. Government using taxpayer $$$. However the forecast outlooks that I
produce from the "RAW" public domain data, is my personal intellectual
property. Therefore the propagation outlooks contained herein is copyrighted ©
1988-2004 by Thomas F. Giella and the Florida Space and Atmospheric Weather
Institute, all rights reserved. Reproduction of information herein is allowed
as long as proper credit is given.
Also space weather forecasting is still an inexact science. The discussions,
forecasts and outlooks are not official but for educational purposes only and
are subject to human error and acts of God, therefore no guarantee or warranty
implied.
73 & GUD DX,
Thomas F. Giella, KN4LF
Retired Space & Atmospheric Weather Forecaster
Plant City, FL, USA
Grid Square EL87WX
Lat & Long 27 58 33.6397 N 82 09 52.4052 W
kn4lf@arrl.net
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http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf5.htm
KN4LF HF/MF Frequency Radio Propagation Theory Notes:
http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf8.htm
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