:Issued: 2004 Dec 04 1259 UTC
:Product: documentation at http://sidc.oma.be/products/meu
#------------------------------------------------------------------------------#
# DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium) #
#------------------------------------------------------------------------------#
SIDC URSIGRAM 41204
SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 04 Dec 2004, 1155UT
SIDC FORECAST (valid from 1230UT, 04 Dec 2004 until 06 Dec 2004)
SOLAR FLARES : Eruptive (C-class flares expected, probability >= 50%)
GEOMAGNETISM : Major geomagnetic storm expected (A>=50 or K>=6)
SOLAR PROTONS : Proton event expected (10 pfu at >10 MeV)
PREDICTIONS FOR 04 Dec 2004 10CM FLUX: 099 / AP: 012
PREDICTIONS FOR 05 Dec 2004 10CM FLUX: 095 / AP: 068
PREDICTIONS FOR 06 Dec 2004 10CM FLUX: 092 / AP: 020
COMMENT: The solar wind has now a very low speed (320km/s) and very low
density, and it carries a weak interplanetary magnetic field <4nT. As a
consequence, the geomagnetic conditions are currently particularly quiet.
However, the arrival of a first CME disturbance is expected in the second part
of the day, while a second stronger disturbance should arrive tomorrow, Dec.5.
Those transients are expected to trigger a geomagnetic storm later today. This
storm should first be minor to moderate, but may amplify tomorrow Dec. 5, with
the arrival of the second CME, then becoming a major storm. Since Dec.3 around
12:00UT, the >10MeV proton flux is slightly enhanced (1 pfu), although it
remains
below event trershold. This slight excess is probably associated with the M1.5
flare and resulting CME shock. The proton flux may increase further when the
shock will reach the Earth in the coming hours. The solar activity is currently
very low. All active regions are stable or decaying. We thus forecast only C
flares, although a new isolated M flare from active region 79 is not entirely
excluded.
SOLAR INDICES FOR 3 Dec 2004
SUNSPOT INDEX : 059
10CM SOLAR FLUX : 101
AK CHAMBON LA FORET : 006
AK WINGST : ///
ESTIMATED AP : 003
NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX END LOC XRAY OP 10CM RADIO BURST TYPES Catania NOAA NOTE
NONE
73,
Thomas F. Giella, KN4LF
Retired Space & Atmospheric Weather Forecaster
Plant City, FL, USA
Grid Square EL87WX
Lat & Long 27 58 33.6397 N 82 09 52.4052 W
kn4lf@arrl.net
Propagation eGroup: http://lists.contesting.com/mailman/listinfo/propagation
PropNET Beacon Program: http://www.propnet.org
HCDX Propagation Channel:
http://www.hard-core-dx.com/index.php?topic=Propagation
KN4LF Daily Solar Space Weather & Geomagnetic Data Archive:
http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf5.htm
KN4LF HF/MF Radio Propagation Theory Notes: http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf8.htm
KN4LF Amateur & SWL Radio History: http://www.kn4lf.com/index.htm
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