Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 338 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Dec 2004
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02/2100Z
to 03/2100Z: Solar activity was moderate. Region 708 (N08W12)
produced an M1/2f flare at 03/0006UTC. This flare was associated
with a full-halo CME and significant radio emission that included a
520 sfu burst at 2695 MHz and type II/IV sweeps. The sunspot
configuration has remained relatively unchanged following the flare.
Region 707 (S14W49) was stable. New Region 709 (N06E61) was
numbered.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low.
Occasional C-class flares are possible in Regions 707 and 708.
Another M-class flare may occur in 708.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet. The proton flux at greater than 10
MeV is enhanced as a result of the M1 flare discussed in Part IA but
has not yet crossed the 10 pfu event threshold. The greater than 2
MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was high. The
Fredericksburg A index reported in Part V is estimated from Boulder
observations.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet until the arrival of the CME associated with
the M1 flare discussed in Part IA. The arrival of the CME is
anticipated late on 04 Dec after which geomagnetic conditions are
expected to be at storm levels. A coronal hole high-speed stream is
also expected to begin to affect geomagnetic activity within the
same time period. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux may increase
with the arrival of the CME but is currently not expected to exceed
the event threshold.
III. Event Probabilities 04 Dec-06 Dec
Class M 20/20/20
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 05/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 03 Dec 101
Predicted 04 Dec-06 Dec 095/095/090
90 Day Mean 03 Dec 108
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 02 Dec 004/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Dec 004/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Dec-06 Dec 010/015-035/040-015/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Dec-06 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 30/60/30
Minor storm 10/20/10
Major-severe storm 05/10/05
B. High Latitudes
Active 50/25/40
Minor storm 30/50/20
Major-severe storm 15/25/10
73,
Thomas F. Giella, KN4LF
Retired Space & Atmospheric Weather Forecaster
Plant City, FL, USA
Grid Square EL87WX
Lat & Long 27 58 33.6397 N 82 09 52.4052 W
kn4lf@arrl.net
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