[Propagation] Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and GeophysicalActivity

["Thomas Giella KN4LF" <kn4lf@tampabay.rr.com>]

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 350 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Dec 2004

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  14/2100Z
to 15/2100Z:  Solar activity was very low.  A B6.2 flare was observed
at 15/1108 UTC from a region on the east limb near S17.  No new
regions were numbered today.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low.

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to active on 16 and 17 December due to the
effects from a recurrent geoeffective coronal hole.  Conditions are
expected to subside to quiet to unsettled on 18 December.

III.  Event Probabilities 16 Dec-18 Dec
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       Green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           15 Dec 089
Predicted   16 Dec-18 Dec  085/090/090
90 Day Mean        15 Dec 104

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 Dec  004/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Dec  005/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Dec-18 Dec  010/010-012/020-008/015

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Dec-18 Dec
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/30/20
Minor storm           10/15/10
Major-severe storm    01/05/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                30/35/25
Minor storm           15/20/15
Major-severe storm    05/10/05
73,
Thomas F. Giella, KN4LF
Retired Space & Atmospheric Weather Forecaster
Plant City, FL, USA
Grid Square EL87WX
Lat & Long 27 58 33.6397 N 82 09 52.4052 W
kn4lf@arrl.net

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