Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 341 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Dec 2004
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05/2100Z
to 06/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. No new regions were
numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to active. Active levels were caused
by sustained periods of southward Bz. Solar wind speed at ACE has
increased from approximately 400 km/s to 460 km/s.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled with isolated active conditions possible.
III. Event Probabilities 07 Dec-09 Dec
Class M 05/05/05
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 06 Dec 093
Predicted 07 Dec-09 Dec 090/090/090
90 Day Mean 06 Dec 107
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 05 Dec 007/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Dec 012/020
Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Dec-09 Dec 008/010-008/010-008/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Dec-09 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 25/25/25
Minor storm 10/10/10
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 30/30/30
Minor storm 15/15/15
Major-severe storm 05/05/05
73,
Thomas F. Giella, KN4LF
Retired Space & Atmospheric Weather Forecaster
Plant City, FL, USA
Grid Square EL87WX
Lat & Long 27 58 33.6397 N 82 09 52.4052 W
kn4lf@arrl.net
Propagation eGroup: http://lists.contesting.com/mailman/listinfo/propagation
PropNET Beacon Program: http://www.propnet.org
HCDX Propagation Channel:
http://www.hard-core-dx.com/index.php?topic=Propagation
KN4LF Daily Solar Space Weather & Geomagnetic Data Archive:
http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf5.htm
KN4LF HF/MF Radio Propagation Theory Notes: http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf8.htm
KN4LF Amateur & SWL Radio History: http://www.kn4lf.com/index.htm
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