The Boulder K index finally reached a 5 (minor geomagnetic storming) for a
three hour period yesterday. We also saw high latitude K indexes
reach a 5-6 (minor to moderate geomagnetic storming) for 12 hours. So my
geomagnetic storming forecast was not a total bust but the storming did occur
one day later than I forecasted.
73,
Thomas F. Giella, KN4LF
Retired Space & Atmospheric Weather Forecaster
Plant City, FL, USA
Grid Square EL87WX
Lat & Long 27 58 33.6397 N 82 09 52.4052 W
kn4lf@arrl.net
Propagation eGroup: http://lists.contesting.com/mailman/listinfo/propagation
PropNET Beacon Program: http://www.propnet.org
HCDX Propagation Channel:
http://www.hard-core-dx.com/index.php?topic=Propagation
KN4LF Daily Solar Space Weather & Geomagnetic Data Archive:
http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf5.htm
KN4LF HF/MF Radio Propagation Theory Notes: http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf8.htm
KN4LF Amateur & SWL Radio History: http://www.kn4lf.com/index.htm
:Issued: 2004 Dec 07 1315 UTC
:Product: documentation at http://sidc.oma.be/products/meu
#------------------------------------------------------------------------------#
# DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium) #
#------------------------------------------------------------------------------#
SIDC URSIGRAM 41207
SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 07 Dec 2004, 1233UT
SIDC FORECAST (valid from 1230UT, 07 Dec 2004 until 09 Dec 2004)
SOLAR FLARES : Quiet conditions (<50% probability of C-class flares)
GEOMAGNETISM : Quiet (A<20 and K<4)
SOLAR PROTONS : Quiet
PREDICTIONS FOR 07 Dec 2004 10CM FLUX: 094 / AP: 017
PREDICTIONS FOR 08 Dec 2004 10CM FLUX: 095 / AP: 013
PREDICTIONS FOR 09 Dec 2004 10CM FLUX: 096 / AP: 015
COMMENT: Last night, we experienced a period of active to minor storm
conditions caused by the negative orientation of B_z. The combination of two
processes can possibly be the cause: the 'tail' of the Dec 5 shock and the
horse-shoe-shaped coronal hole located at the central meridian on Dec 1. Current
space weather conditions: no flaring activity, elevated solar wind speed (500
km/s), B_z negative but small resulting in quiet geomagnetic conditions. The
last part of the coronal hole can possibly disturb the geomagnetic field once
again in three days.
SOLAR INDICES FOR 6 Dec 2004
SUNSPOT INDEX : 047
10CM SOLAR FLUX : 093
AK CHAMBON LA FORET : 036
AK WINGST : ///
ESTIMATED AP : 022
NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX END LOC XRAY OP 10CM RADIO BURST TYPES Catania NOAA NOTE
NONE
---
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