During the past 48 hour period the K index at Boulder, CO reached a 4 for nine
hours which is active and one high latitude station reached a K of 6 for three
hours which is moderate geomagnetic storming. So I consider my forecasted minor
to moderate geomagnetic storming forecast to be a bust. In 31+ years of space
weather forecasting I don't recall such a strong Earth facing full halo coronal
mass ejection not produce a significant geomagnetic storm.
Basically what happened was that the Bz component of the magnetic field swung
positive instead of negative upon arrival of the CME and didn't allow the
zillions of electrons in the CME to flow in to Earth's magnetic field. The Wang
Sheeley Bz prediction model forecasted a positive Bz upon arrival of the CME
but I ignored it because of general inaccuracy of the model.
73,
Thomas F. Giella, KN4LF
Retired Space & Atmospheric Weather Forecaster
Plant City, FL, USA
Grid Square EL87WX
Lat & Long 27 58 33.6397 N 82 09 52.4052 W
kn4lf@arrl.net
Propagation eGroup: http://lists.contesting.com/mailman/listinfo/propagation
PropNET Beacon Program: http://www.propnet.org
HCDX Propagation Channel:
http://www.hard-core-dx.com/index.php?topic=Propagation
KN4LF Daily Solar Space Weather & Geomagnetic Data Archive:
http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf5.htm
KN4LF HF/MF Radio Propagation Theory Notes: http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf8.htm
:Issued: 2004 Dec 06 1335 UTC
:Product: documentation at http://sidc.oma.be/products/meu
#------------------------------------------------------------------------------#
# DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium) #
#------------------------------------------------------------------------------#
SIDC URSIGRAM 41206
SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 06 Dec 2004, 1239UT
SIDC FORECAST (valid from 1230UT, 06 Dec 2004 until 08 Dec 2004)
SOLAR FLARES : Quiet conditions (<50% probability of C-class flares)
GEOMAGNETISM : Quiet (A<20 and K<4)
SOLAR PROTONS : Quiet
PREDICTIONS FOR 06 Dec 2004 10CM FLUX: 096 / AP: 011
PREDICTIONS FOR 07 Dec 2004 10CM FLUX: 096 / AP: 012
PREDICTIONS FOR 08 Dec 2004 10CM FLUX: 096 / AP: 012
COMMENT: Flaring activity is low. The solar wind speed is between 400 and 450
km/s. B_z (the north south component of the interplanetary magnetic field) is
negative but small (-5nT) resulting in quiet conditions with one K of 4 as
measured by Izmiran. The post-signature of the Dec-5-shock in ACE-data, is
fading away.
SOLAR INDICES FOR 5 Dec 2004
SUNSPOT INDEX : 072
10CM SOLAR FLUX : 096
AK CHAMBON LA FORET : 012
AK WINGST : ///
ESTIMATED AP : 008
NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX END LOC XRAY OP 10CM RADIO BURST TYPES Catania NOAA NOTE
NONE
END
BT
#------------------------------------------------------------------------------#
# Solar Influences Data analysis Center - RWC Belgium #
# Royal Observatory of Belgium #
# Fax : 32 (0) 2 373 0 224 #
# Tel.: 32 (0) 2 373 0 491 #
# #
# For more information, see http://sidc.oma.be. Please do not reply directly #
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