Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 340 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Dec 2004
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04/2100Z
to 05/2100Z: Solar activity was low. A B3.1 flare occurred at
05/1710 from Region 706 (S07W74). No new regions were numbered
today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled with an isolated active
period between 0600 UTC and 0900 UTC due to the arrival of a CME
which occurred on 03 December. A shock was observed at ACE at
05/0656. A sudden impulse was observed on the Boulder magnetometer
at 05/0747 with a deviation of 47 nT. The greater than 2 MeV
electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled. An isolated active period is
possible on 06 December.
III. Event Probabilities 06 Dec-08 Dec
Class M 10/05/05
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 05 Dec 096
Predicted 06 Dec-08 Dec 095/090/090
90 Day Mean 05 Dec 108
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 Dec 000/001
Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Dec 008/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Dec-08 Dec 008/015-008/015-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Dec-08 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 25/25/25
Minor storm 10/10/10
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 30/30/30
Minor storm 15/15/15
Major-severe storm 05/05/05
73,
Thomas F. Giella, KN4LF
Retired Space & Atmospheric Weather Forecaster
Plant City, FL, USA
Grid Square EL87WX
Lat & Long 27 58 33.6397 N 82 09 52.4052 W
kn4lf@arrl.net
Propagation eGroup: http://lists.contesting.com/mailman/listinfo/propagation
PropNET Beacon Program: http://www.propnet.org
HCDX Propagation Channel:
http://www.hard-core-dx.com/index.php?topic=Propagation
KN4LF Daily Solar Space Weather & Geomagnetic Data Archive:
http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf5.htm
KN4LF HF/MF Radio Propagation Theory Notes: http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf8.htm
KN4LF Amateur & SWL Radio History: http://www.kn4lf.com/index.htm
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