[Propagation] Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and GeophysicalActivity

["Thomas Giella KN4LF" <kn4lf@tampabay.rr.com>]

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 353 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Dec 2004

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  17/2100Z
to 18/2100Z:  Solar activity was very low.  Two CME's were observed
on LASCO imagery, one at 18/0936Z and the other at 18/1024Z.  These
CME's were most likely farside events.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low with a small chance for C-class flares from Regions 712 (S10E37)
and 713 (S10E59).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 17/2100Z to 18/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to active with isolated minor
storming at high latitudes.  Active to minor storm periods due to
the continued influence of a geoeffective high speed coronal hole
stream.  Solar wind speed at ACE has decreased from approximately
640 km/s to 530 km/s.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled.

III.  Event Probabilities 19 Dec-21 Dec
Class M    05/05/05
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       Green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           18 Dec 091
Predicted   19 Dec-21 Dec  090/095/100
90 Day Mean        18 Dec 104

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 17 Dec  009/015
Estimated Afr/Ap 18 Dec  008/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 19 Dec-21 Dec  006/010-004/005-004/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Dec-21 Dec
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/10/10
Minor storm           10/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/15/15
Minor storm           10/10/10
Major-severe storm    05/01/01
73,
Thomas F. Giella, KN4LF
Retired Space & Atmospheric Weather Forecaster
Plant City, FL, USA
Grid Square EL87WX
Lat & Long 27 58 33.6397 N 82 09 52.4052 W
kn4lf@arrl.net

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