[Propagation] Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and GeophysicalActivity

["Thomas Giella KN4LF" <kn4lf@tampabay.rr.com>]

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 357 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Dec 2004

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  21/2100Z
to 22/2100Z:  Solar activity was low.  Region 713 (S10E07) produced a
C2/Sf event at 22/2025 UTC.  This region has went relatively
unchanged and retains a beta-gamma magnetic configuration.  A new
region was numbered today as Region 714 (S04W01).

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low.

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to minor storm conditions.  The ACE
solar wind data suggest the possible influence of a high speed solar
wind stream.  In the past 24 hours the solar wind velocity has
steadily increased from around 400 km/s to above 550 km/s with
southward fluctuating Bz, and low density.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled with isolated periods of active
conditions.

III.  Event Probabilities 23 Dec-25 Dec
Class M    25/25/25
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       Green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           22 Dec 099
Predicted   23 Dec-25 Dec  105/105/105
90 Day Mean        22 Dec 104

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 21 Dec  006/012
Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Dec  015/020
Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Dec-25 Dec  012/015-010/010-012/015

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Dec-25 Dec
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/20/20
Minor storm           10/10/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                30/25/30
Minor storm           15/15/15
Major-severe storm    05/01/05
73,
Thomas F. Giella, KN4LF
Retired Space & Atmospheric Weather Forecaster
Plant City, FL, USA
Grid Square EL87WX
Lat & Long 27 58 33.6397 N 82 09 52.4052 W
kn4lf@arrl.net

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