[Propagation] Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and GeophysicalActivity

["Thomas Giella KN4LF" <kn4lf@tampabay.rr.com>]

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 355 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Dec 2004

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  19/2100Z
to 20/2100Z:  Solar activity was very low.  Region 713 (S09E34) has
grown in white light area coverage to over 200 millionths and has
developed a magnetic beta-gamma configuration.  No new regions were
numbered today.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low.  Region 713 could possibly produce an isolated C-class
event.

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 19/2100Z to 20/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet.  The greater than 2 MeV electron
flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled.  Isolated active periods are
possible on 22 December due to the influence of a recurrent coronal
hole high speed solar wind stream.

III.  Event Probabilities 21 Dec-23 Dec
Class M    15/15/15
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       Green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           20 Dec 094
Predicted   21 Dec-23 Dec  100/100/105
90 Day Mean        20 Dec 104

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 19 Dec  001/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 20 Dec  003/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 21 Dec-23 Dec  008/010-015/020-010/012

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Dec-23 Dec
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/25/20
Minor storm           05/10/10
Major-severe storm    01/05/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/30/25
Minor storm           10/20/15
Major-severe storm    05/05/05
73,
Thomas F. Giella, KN4LF
Retired Space & Atmospheric Weather Forecaster
Plant City, FL, USA
Grid Square EL87WX
Lat & Long 27 58 33.6397 N 82 09 52.4052 W
kn4lf@arrl.net

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