[Propagation] Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and GeophysicalActivity

["Thomas Giella KN4LF" <kn4lf@tampabay.rr.com>]

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 359 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Dec 2004

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  23/2100Z
to 24/2100Z:  Solar activity was low. A single C1, long duration
x-ray flare occurred at 0356UTC from a spotless area in the
southeast quadrant. Both spotted regions, 713 (S08W21) and 714
(S03W30), were quiet and stable. A lengthy filament disappeared from
the northwest quadrant early in the day.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to persist
at low levels.

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled to mildly active. A recurrent
high-speed solar wind stream is due in the next 24-36 hours.

III.  Event Probabilities 25 Dec-27 Dec
Class M    05/05/05
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       Green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           24 Dec 097
Predicted   25 Dec-27 Dec  100/100/100
90 Day Mean        24 Dec 104

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 23 Dec  005/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 24 Dec  004/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 25 Dec-27 Dec  010/010-015/015-015/015

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Dec-27 Dec
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/30/30
Minor storm           10/15/15
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                25/40/40
Minor storm           10/20/20
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
73,
Thomas F. Giella, KN4LF
Retired Space & Atmospheric Weather Forecaster
Plant City, FL, USA
Grid Square EL87WX
Lat & Long 27 58 33.6397 N 82 09 52.4052 W
kn4lf@arrl.net

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