[Propagation] Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and GeophysicalActivity

["Thomas Giella KN4LF" <kn4lf@tampabay.rr.com>]

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 349 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Dec 2004

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  13/2100Z
to 14/2100Z:  Solar activity was at very low levels again today.
Region 711 (N13W74) underwent a slight decay in sunspot area during
the period while the weak gamma magnetic structure remained intact.
No new regions were numbered today.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to remain
at very low levels.

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on 15 December.  Active
conditions may occur beginning late on 16 December and continuing
through 17 December due to a recurrent geoeffective coronal hole.

III.  Event Probabilities 15 Dec-17 Dec
Class M    05/05/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           14 Dec 089
Predicted   15 Dec-17 Dec  090/085/085
90 Day Mean        14 Dec 105

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 Dec  008/011
Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Dec  005/009
Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Dec-17 Dec  005/005-010/012-012/020

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Dec-17 Dec
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/20/25
Minor storm           01/05/15
Major-severe storm    01/01/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/30/35
Minor storm           01/10/30
Major-severe storm    01/05/10
73,
Thomas F. Giella, KN4LF
Retired Space & Atmospheric Weather Forecaster
Plant City, FL, USA
Grid Square EL87WX
Lat & Long 27 58 33.6397 N 82 09 52.4052 W
kn4lf@arrl.net

Propagation eGroup: http://lists.contesting.com/mailman/listinfo/propagation
PropNET Beacon Program: http://www.propnet.org
HCDX Propagation Channel: 
http://www.hard-core-dx.com/index.php?topic=Propagation
KN4LF Daily Solar Space Weather & Geomagnetic Data Archive: 
http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf5.htm
KN4LF HF/MF Radio Propagation Theory Notes: http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf8.htm
KN4LF Amateur & SWL Radio History: http://www.kn4lf.com/index.htm




---
Outgoing mail is certified virus free by Grisoft AVG 6.0.
Checked by AVG anti-virus system (http://www.grisoft.com).
Version: 6.0.811 / Virus Database: 552 - Release Date: 12/13/2004 

_______________________________________________
Propagation mailing list
Propagation@contesting.com
http://lists.contesting.com/mailman/listinfo/propagation