Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 335 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Nov 2004
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29/2100Z
to 30/2100Z: Solar activity was low. There were three C-class events
during the past 24 hours; A C2 at 29/2137 UTC from Region 707
(S14W12), a C4/Sf at 0658 UTC from Region 708 (N11E27), and a C1 at
1102 UTC from Region 707. Region 707 has shown only minor
development during the day but does have some weak mixing of
magnetic polarity in the trailer portion of the group.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low
for the next three days (30 November - 02 December).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was predominantly unsettled to active during
the past 24 hours. Solar wind signatures show increasing velocity
(600-650 km/s), declining density, enhanced temperature, and regular
oscillations of the z-component of the interplanetary magnetic
field, all consistent with the presence of a high speed stream
driven by a coronal hole.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled to active for tomorrow (01 December) and
partway through the 2nd day (02 December). Thereafter activity should
begin to decline, with predominantly unsettled levels for the 3rd
day (03 December).
III. Event Probabilities 01 Dec-03 Dec
Class M 10/10/10
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 30 Nov 111
Predicted 01 Dec-03 Dec 115/115/115
90 Day Mean 30 Nov 108
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 29 Nov 020/015
Estimated Afr/Ap 30 Nov 015/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Dec-03 Dec 015/020-015/015-012/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Dec-03 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 30/30/25
Minor storm 20/20/15
Major-severe storm 10/10/05
B. High Latitudes
Active 35/35/30
Minor storm 25/25/20
Major-severe storm 10/10/05
73,
Thomas F. Giella, KN4LF
Retired Space & Atmospheric Weather Forecaster
Plant City, FL, USA
Grid Square EL87WX
Lat & Long 27 58 33.6397 N 82 09 52.4052 W
kn4lf@arrl.net
Propagation eGroup: http://lists.contesting.com/mailman/listinfo/propagation
PropNET Beacon Program: http://www.propnet.org
HCDX Propagation Channel:
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KN4LF Daily Solar Space Weather & Geomagnetic Data Archive:
http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf5.htm
KN4LF HF/MF Radio Propagation Theory Notes: http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf8.htm
KN4LF Amateur & SWL Radio History: http://www.kn4lf.com/index.htm
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