Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 339 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Dec 2004
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03/2100Z
to 04/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. Only small B-class flares
occurred in the past 24 hours. Both Regions 707 (S13W64) and 708
(N09W26) are slowly decaying.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low. Small flares could occur in Regions 707 and 708. An
isolated M-class flare is possible in 708 but will become less
likely as the region decays.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet. The solar wind observed by ACE RTSW
over the past 24 hours has been characterized by weak IMF and
unusually low density and speed. The greater than 2 MeV electron
flux at geosynchronous orbit was high.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to remain quiet until the arrival of the CME associated
with the M1 flare on 03 Dec. Arrival is still expected before
mid-day on 05 Dec. Geomagnetic storm conditions are possible on 05
Dec as a result of the CME and the influence of an anticipated
high-speed coronal hole stream in the same time period.
III. Event Probabilities 05 Dec-07 Dec
Class M 20/15/10
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 04 Dec 097
Predicted 05 Dec-07 Dec 095/090/090
90 Day Mean 04 Dec 108
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 03 Dec 001/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Dec 005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Dec-07 Dec 035/040-015/020-012/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Dec-07 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 60/30/20
Minor storm 20/10/05
Major-severe storm 10/05/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 25/50/25
Minor storm 50/20/10
Major-severe storm 25/10/01
73,
Thomas F. Giella, KN4LF
Retired Space & Atmospheric Weather Forecaster
Plant City, FL, USA
Grid Square EL87WX
Lat & Long 27 58 33.6397 N 82 09 52.4052 W
kn4lf@arrl.net
Propagation eGroup: http://lists.contesting.com/mailman/listinfo/propagation
PropNET Beacon Program: http://www.propnet.org
HCDX Propagation Channel:
http://www.hard-core-dx.com/index.php?topic=Propagation
KN4LF Daily Solar Space Weather & Geomagnetic Data Archive:
http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf5.htm
KN4LF HF/MF Radio Propagation Theory Notes: http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf8.htm
KN4LF Amateur & SWL Radio History: http://www.kn4lf.com/index.htm
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