Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 336 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Dec 2004
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30/2100Z
to 01/2100Z: Solar activity was moderate. Region 708 (N09E14)
produced an M1/Sn flare at 01/0720 UTC. This active region also
generated a few C-class subflares over the past 24 hours. Region 707
(S17W24) produced C-class subflares as well. Both of these regions
have grown in sunspot area and magnetic complexity since yesterday.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be
predominately low with C-class flares in Regions 707 and 708. Both
active regions seem capable of producing another isolated M-class
flare.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 30/2100Z to 01/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to minor storm levels over
the past 24 hours. Most periods were quiet to unsettled with an
isolated active to minor storm period (01 Dec 0600-0900 UTC). ACE
RTSW observations suggest the continued influence of a high-speed
solar wind stream. The Fredericksburg A index reported for 30 Nov in
Part V is estimated from Boulder observations. The greater than 2
MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was high.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to active levels as the high-speed stream
influence persists. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at
geosynchronous orbit is expected to reach high levels again tomorrow
(02 Dec).
III. Event Probabilities 02 Dec-04 Dec
Class M 15/15/15
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 01 Dec 111
Predicted 02 Dec-04 Dec 115/120/125
90 Day Mean 01 Dec 108
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 30 Nov 016/015
Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Dec 012/015
Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Dec-04 Dec 012/015-012/012-010/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Dec-04 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 30/30/30
Minor storm 15/15/15
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 30/30/30
Minor storm 25/25/25
Major-severe storm 05/05/05
73,
Thomas F. Giella, KN4LF
Retired Space & Atmospheric Weather Forecaster
Plant City, FL, USA
Grid Square EL87WX
Lat & Long 27 58 33.6397 N 82 09 52.4052 W
kn4lf@arrl.net
Propagation eGroup: http://lists.contesting.com/mailman/listinfo/propagation
PropNET Beacon Program: http://www.propnet.org
HCDX Propagation Channel:
http://www.hard-core-dx.com/index.php?topic=Propagation
KN4LF Daily Solar Space Weather & Geomagnetic Data Archive:
http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf5.htm
KN4LF HF/MF Radio Propagation Theory Notes: http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf8.htm
KN4LF Amateur & SWL Radio History: http://www.kn4lf.com/index.htm
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