:Issued: 2004 Dec 02 1251 UTC
:Product: documentation at http://sidc.oma.be/products/meu
#------------------------------------------------------------------------------#
# DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium) #
#------------------------------------------------------------------------------#
SIDC URSIGRAM 41202
SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 02 Dec 2004, 1232UT
SIDC FORECAST (valid from 1230UT, 02 Dec 2004 until 04 Dec 2004)
SOLAR FLARES : Eruptive (C-class flares expected, probability >= 50%)
GEOMAGNETISM : Quiet (A<20 and K<4)
SOLAR PROTONS : Quiet
PREDICTIONS FOR 02 Dec 2004 10CM FLUX: 113 / AP: 005
PREDICTIONS FOR 03 Dec 2004 10CM FLUX: 115 / AP: 006
PREDICTIONS FOR 04 Dec 2004 10CM FLUX: 118 / AP: 026
COMMENT: Since the M1.1 flare of Dec.1, the solar activity has declined with
only a few C flares, mostly coming from active region 77 (NOAA707), which has
grown again in magnetic complexity (now Beta-gamma). We expect C flares and a
possible M flare, mainly from regions 77 and 79, and also from the new, still
unlabelled, active region now crossing the NE limb.
A semi-halo CME was associated with the M1.1 flare of Dec.1 07:00UT. With an
initial ejection speed between 500 and 800km/s, it may hit the Earth
magnetosphere on Dec.4, triggering a minor or moderate geomagnetic storm. In the
meantime, the geomagnetic field should remain mostly quiet to unsettled, as it
is now, as the coronal hole influence completes its decline (wind speed now near
450km/s).
SOLAR INDICES FOR 1 Dec 2004
SUNSPOT INDEX : 065
10CM SOLAR FLUX : 111
AK CHAMBON LA FORET : 015
AK WINGST : ///
ESTIMATED AP : 011
NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX END LOC XRAY OP 10CM RADIO BURST TYPES Catania NOAA NOTE
NONE
73,
Thomas F. Giella, KN4LF
Retired Space & Atmospheric Weather Forecaster
Plant City, FL, USA
Grid Square EL87WX
Lat & Long 27 58 33.6397 N 82 09 52.4052 W
kn4lf@arrl.net
Propagation eGroup: http://lists.contesting.com/mailman/listinfo/propagation
PropNET Beacon Program: http://www.propnet.org
HCDX Propagation Channel:
http://www.hard-core-dx.com/index.php?topic=Propagation
KN4LF Daily Solar Space Weather & Geomagnetic Data Archive:
http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf5.htm
KN4LF HF/MF Radio Propagation Theory Notes: http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf8.htm
KN4LF Amateur & SWL Radio History: http://www.kn4lf.com/index.htm
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