[Propagation] Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and GeophysicalActivity

["Thomas Giella KN4LF" <kn4lf@tampabay.rr.com>]

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 351 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Dec 2004

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  15/2100Z
to 16/2100Z:  Solar activity was very low.  Region 710 (S06W61) was
responsible for a few B-class flares.  A full halo CME observed on
LASCO imagery late on 15 December was determined to be a farside
event.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low.  A new region rotating on the southeast limb may
slightly increase activity levels.

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled with isolated active
levels late in the period.  A gradual increase in solar wind speed
began about 16/0500Z.  Speed increased from near 350 km/s to 600
km/s by the end of the day.  This is likely the onset of a recurrent
high speed stream.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to active with minor storm periods at high
latitudes on 17 and 18 December.  Expect quiet to unsettled levels
with isolated active conditions on 19 December as the high speed
coronal hole stream subsides.

III.  Event Probabilities 17 Dec-19 Dec
Class M    05/05/05
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       Green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           16 Dec 090
Predicted   17 Dec-19 Dec  090/090/090
90 Day Mean        16 Dec 104

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 15 Dec  003/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Dec  008/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Dec-19 Dec  012/020-008/015-006/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Dec-19 Dec
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/20/15
Minor storm           15/10/10
Major-severe storm    05/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                35/25/25
Minor storm           20/15/10
Major-severe storm    10/05/05
73,
Thomas F. Giella, KN4LF
Retired Space & Atmospheric Weather Forecaster
Plant City, FL, USA
Grid Square EL87WX
Lat & Long 27 58 33.6397 N 82 09 52.4052 W
kn4lf@arrl.net

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