[Propagation] Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and GeophysicalActivity

["Thomas Giella KN4LF" <kn4lf@tampabay.rr.com>]

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 347 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Dec 2004

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  11/2100Z
to 12/2100Z:  Solar activity was at very low levels today.  Region
711 (N13W47) underwent growth in sunspot area and was responsible
for multiple low level B-class flares during the period. This region
was the only visible sunspot group on the disk today.  No new
regions were numbered today.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be at
very low levels.

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at unsettled to minor storm levels.  The
elevated conditions are believed to be the result of the long
duration C2 flare that occurred on 8 December.  The greater than 2
MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at predominantly quiet to unsettled levels.  Isolated
active conditions may be possible on 13 December in response to the
potential for southward Bz oscillations and a slightly elevated
solar wind.

III.  Event Probabilities 13 Dec-15 Dec
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           12 Dec 091
Predicted   13 Dec-15 Dec  090/090/090
90 Day Mean        12 Dec 105

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 11 Dec  011/015
Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Dec  020/043
Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Dec-15 Dec  010/015-005/008-005/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Dec-15 Dec
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/15/15
Minor storm           10/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                35/20/15
Minor storm           15/05/01
Major-severe storm    05/01/01
73,
Thomas F. Giella, KN4LF
Retired Space & Atmospheric Weather Forecaster
Plant City, FL, USA
Grid Square EL87WX
Lat & Long 27 58 33.6397 N 82 09 52.4052 W
kn4lf@arrl.net

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