[Propagation] Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and GeophysicalActivity

["Thomas Giella KN4LF" <kn4lf@tampabay.rr.com>]

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 354 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Dec 2004

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  18/2100Z
to 19/2100Z:  Solar activity was low. Region 713 (S10E46) produced a
single C1 flare at 19/0414Z. A faint CME off the southeast limb was
likely associated with this flare, but is not expected to be
geoeffective. Region 712 (S11E24), the only other spot group on the
visible disk, was quiet and stable.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low. Isolated C-class flares are possible from Region 713.

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet. Solar wind speed was in gradual
decline and finished the period near 400 km/s. The greater than 2
MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled. Isolated active periods are
possible on 22 December.

III.  Event Probabilities 20 Dec-22 Dec
Class M    05/05/05
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       Green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           19 Dec 094
Predicted   20 Dec-22 Dec  095/100/100
90 Day Mean        19 Dec 104

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 18 Dec  008/012
Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Dec  003/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Dec-22 Dec  005/005-005/005-010/012

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Dec-22 Dec
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/20
Minor storm           05/05/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/30
Minor storm           05/05/15
Major-severe storm    01/01/05
73,
Thomas F. Giella, KN4LF
Retired Space & Atmospheric Weather Forecaster
Plant City, FL, USA
Grid Square EL87WX
Lat & Long 27 58 33.6397 N 82 09 52.4052 W
kn4lf@arrl.net

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