[Propagation] Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and GeophysicalActivity

["Thomas Giella KN4LF" <kn4lf@tampabay.rr.com>]

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 365 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Dec 2004

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  29/2100Z
to 30/2100Z:  Solar activity remained at moderate levels today.
Region 715 (N04E48) produced the largest flare of the period, an
M2/Sf x-ray event that occurred at 30/1047Z along with an associated
Tenflare (230 sfu) and a spectral Type II radio sweep that had an
estimated shock velocity of 653 km/s.  LASCO imagery depicts a
resulting CME that appears to have a weak Earth directed component.
The strong delta structure remains intact and some growth in
penumbral coverage was observed during the period.  Region 716
(S16E52) was numbered today.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be at
low to moderate levels.  Region 715 remains magnetically complex
enough to produce isolated M-class flare activity.

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels today.  The
elevated periods are most likely due to a waning high speed coronal
hole stream.  The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous
orbit reached high levels again today.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at predominantly quiet to unsettled levels on 31 Dec
and 1 Jan. A glancing blow from the CME that resulted from M2/Sf
flare that occurred today could produce periods of active to minor
storm conditions beginning on 2 Jan.

III.  Event Probabilities 31 Dec-02 Jan
Class M    60/60/60
Class X    10/10/10
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           30 Dec 100
Predicted   31 Dec-02 Jan  100/105/105
90 Day Mean        30 Dec 105

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 29 Dec  016/018
Estimated Afr/Ap 30 Dec  011/015
Predicted Afr/Ap 31 Dec-02 Jan  008/010-008/012-015/020

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 31 Dec-02 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/20/35
Minor storm           01/01/15
Major-severe storm    01/01/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/25/40
Minor storm           05/10/20
Major-severe storm    01/05/10
73,
Thomas F. Giella, KN4LF
Retired Space & Atmospheric Weather Forecaster
Plant City, FL, USA
Grid Square EL87WX
Lat & Long 27 58 33.6397 N 82 09 52.4052 W
kn4lf@arrl.net

Propagation eGroup: http://lists.contesting.com/mailman/listinfo/propagation
PropNET Beacon Program: http://www.propnet.org
HCDX Propagation Channel: 
http://www.hard-core-dx.com/index.php?topic=Propagation
KN4LF Daily Solar Space Weather & Geomagnetic Data Archive: 
http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf5.htm
KN4LF HF/MF Radio Propagation Theory Notes: http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf8.htm
KN4LF Amateur & SWL Radio History: http://www.kn4lf.com/index.htm




--
No virus found in this outgoing message.
Checked by AVG Anti-Virus.
Version: 7.0.298 / Virus Database: 265.6.6 - Release Date: 12/28/2004

_______________________________________________
Propagation mailing list
Propagation@contesting.com
http://lists.contesting.com/mailman/listinfo/propagation