[Propagation] Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and GeophysicalActivity

["Thomas Giella KN4LF" <kn4lf@tampabay.rr.com>]

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 364 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Dec 2004

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  28/2100Z
to 29/2100Z:  Solar activity increased to moderate levels today.
Region 715 (N04E61) produced the largest flare of the period, an M2
x-ray flare that occurred at 29/1627Z.  An associated Tenflare (510
sfu) and a spectral Type II radio sweep with an estimated shock
velocity of 411 km/s.  This flare also produced a CME that does not
appear to be Earth directed.  Several lesser C-class flares were
also reported from this region during the period.  The large
asymmetrical sunspot contains both polarities and appears to be
magnetically complex.  Region 713 (S09W91) produced an M1 x-ray
flare that occurred at 29/1920Z.  Multiple lesser C-class flares
originated from this region and the sunspot cluster was in a growth
phase as the spot group transited the solar west limb.  No new
regions were numbered today.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be at
low to moderate levels.  Region 715 is capable of producing isolated
M-class flare activity.

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels.  The elevated
conditions were most likely the result of the geoeffective
transequatorial high speed coronal hole stream that had a mean
radial speed today of approximately 430km/s.  The greater than 2 MeV
electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at predominantly quiet to unsettled levels throughout
the period.  Isolated active conditions early on the first day (30
Dec) of the period are possible as the coronal hole rotates out of
geoeffective position.

III.  Event Probabilities 30 Dec-01 Jan
Class M    60/50/50
Class X    10/10/10
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           29 Dec 099
Predicted   30 Dec-01 Jan  100/100/105
90 Day Mean        29 Dec 105

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 28 Dec  012/016
Estimated Afr/Ap 29 Dec  018/022
Predicted Afr/Ap 30 Dec-01 Jan  008/008-008/008-008/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Dec-01 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/20/20
Minor storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/20/20
Minor storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
73,
Thomas F. Giella, KN4LF
Retired Space & Atmospheric Weather Forecaster
Plant City, FL, USA
Grid Square EL87WX
Lat & Long 27 58 33.6397 N 82 09 52.4052 W
kn4lf@arrl.net

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