[Propagation] SIDC Belgium Daily Solar & Geo Report

["Thomas Giella KN4LF" <kn4lf@tampabay.rr.com>]

:Issued: 2004 Dec 30 1239 UTC
:Product: documentation at http://sidc.oma.be/products/meu
#------------------------------------------------------------------------------#
# DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC 
(RWC-Belgium) #
#------------------------------------------------------------------------------#
SIDC URSIGRAM 41230
SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 30 Dec 2004, 1226UT
SIDC FORECAST (valid from 1230UT, 30 Dec 2004 until 01 Jan 2005)
SOLAR FLARES  : Active (M-class flares expected, probability >= 50%)
GEOMAGNETISM  : Quiet (A<20 and K<4)
SOLAR PROTONS : Quiet
PREDICTIONS FOR 30 Dec 2004  10CM FLUX: 100 / AP: 018
PREDICTIONS FOR 31 Dec 2004  10CM FLUX: 101 / AP: 017
PREDICTIONS FOR 01 Jan 2005  10CM FLUX: 102 / AP: 017

COMMENT: On Dec 29, 16:27UT an M2.3 flare occurred coming from Catania 
sunspot
group 98 (NOAA 0715) at the east. An EIT-wave is clearly visible, this is a 
sign
of a possible accompanying CME. CACTus detected indeed a CME with an angular
width of 112 degrees east-ward ejected. No geomagnetic disturbance caused by
this event is expected. A second M-flare later that evening had no sign of 
an
accompanying CME. At the moment of issue of this bulletin, another M-flare
occurred, probably coming from group 98 (NOAA 0715). ACE detected a rather
intense increase in solar wind speed: from 400 up to 550 km/s. The total
interplanetary has decreased again since the solar wind speed increase. We
expect quiet geomagnetic conditions.

SOLAR INDICES FOR 29 Dec 2004
SUNSPOT INDEX       : ///
10CM SOLAR FLUX     : 099
AK CHAMBON LA FORET : 023
AK WINGST           : ///
ESTIMATED AP        : 018

NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX  END  LOC    XRAY OP  10CM RADIO BURST TYPES     Catania NOAA 
NOTE
29  1557  1627 1638 N04E62 M2.3      510 III/2,II/1                 98 0715
29  1910  1920 1925 S12W90 M1.4                                     90 0713

73,
Thomas F. Giella, KN4LF
Retired Space & Atmospheric Weather Forecaster
Plant City, FL, USA
Grid Square EL87WX
Lat & Long 27 58 33.6397 N 82 09 52.4052 W
kn4lf@arrl.net

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