Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 342 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Dec 2004
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06/2100Z
to 07/2100Z: Solar activity was at very low levels. No new regions
were numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to remain
at very low levels.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels. A period of
minor storm conditions did occur at high latitudes between 07/0300
and 0600Z and is believed to be in response to a waning coronal
hole. Solar wind velocity has been at or near 500 km/s throughout
most of the period. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at
geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at predominantly quiet to unsettled levels throughout
the period with isolated active conditions possible on the first day
(8 Dec) as the geoeffective coronal hole rotates off the solar west
limb. The remainder of the period should return to quiet to
unsettled levels.
III. Event Probabilities 08 Dec-10 Dec
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 07 Dec 090
Predicted 08 Dec-10 Dec 090/095/095
90 Day Mean 07 Dec 107
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 06 Dec 011/019
Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Dec 009/015
Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Dec-10 Dec 008/015-008/010-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Dec-10 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 20/20/20
Minor storm 05/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 30/25/20
Minor storm 10/10/05
Major-severe storm 05/05/01
73,
Thomas F. Giella, KN4LF
Retired Space & Atmospheric Weather Forecaster
Plant City, FL, USA
Grid Square EL87WX
Lat & Long 27 58 33.6397 N 82 09 52.4052 W
kn4lf@arrl.net
Propagation eGroup: http://lists.contesting.com/mailman/listinfo/propagation
PropNET Beacon Program: http://www.propnet.org
HCDX Propagation Channel:
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KN4LF Daily Solar Space Weather & Geomagnetic Data Archive:
http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf5.htm
KN4LF HF/MF Radio Propagation Theory Notes: http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf8.htm
KN4LF Amateur & SWL Radio History: http://www.kn4lf.com/index.htm
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