[Propagation] SIDC Belgium Daily Solar & Geo Report

["Thomas Giella KN4LF" <kn4lf@tampabay.rr.com>]

Issued: 2004 Dec 16 1302 UTC
:Product: documentation at http://sidc.oma.be/products/meu
#------------------------------------------------------------------------------#
# DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC 
(RWC-Belgium) #
#------------------------------------------------------------------------------#
SIDC URSIGRAM 41216
SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 16 Dec 2004, 1254UT
SIDC FORECAST (valid from 1230UT, 16 Dec 2004 until 18 Dec 2004)
SOLAR FLARES  : Quiet conditions (<50% probability of C-class flares)
GEOMAGNETISM  : Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)
SOLAR PROTONS : Quiet
PREDICTIONS FOR 16 Dec 2004  10CM FLUX: 089 / AP: 008
PREDICTIONS FOR 17 Dec 2004  10CM FLUX: 088 / AP: 028
PREDICTIONS FOR 18 Dec 2004  10CM FLUX: 087 / AP: 022

COMMENT: A halo CME was observed by LASCO yesterday evening (Dec 15). The 
event
was first observed in LASCO C2 at 17h36 UT in the NW direction. CACTus
(http://sidc.oma.be/cactus) did detect the event but interpreted it as 3
simultaneous small CMEs instead of one halo CME. No CACTus halo CME alert
message was thus sent. The CACTus measured speeds are in the range of 550 
km/s
for this event. A long duration B6.2 flare occurred earlier on the day (peak
11h08) and is therefore unrelated. Also no filament disappeareance was 
observed
on the solar disc. The halo CME is thus determined to be a backsided event. 
No
geomagnetic consequences are expected from this halo CME. Meanwhile ACE & 
CELIAS
data show that the influence of the coronal hole in the northern hemisphere 
has
started: the solar wind speed is rising, currently at 500 km/s. Geomagnetic
conditions remain quiet at the moment, as the z-component of the magnetic 
field
is pointing northward. As soon as this component turns southward, we expect
active geomagnetic conditions.

END: Submit forecast

SOLAR INDICES FOR 15 Dec 2004
SUNSPOT INDEX       : 015
10CM SOLAR FLUX     : 089
AK CHAMBON LA FORET : ///
AK WINGST           : ///
ESTIMATED AP        : 006

NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX  END  LOC    XRAY OP  10CM RADIO BURST TYPES     Catania NOAA 
NOTE
NONE

73,
Thomas F. Giella, KN4LF
Retired Space & Atmospheric Weather Forecaster
Plant City, FL, USA
Grid Square EL87WX
Lat & Long 27 58 33.6397 N 82 09 52.4052 W
kn4lf@arrl.net

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KN4LF Daily Solar Space Weather & Geomagnetic Data Archive: 
http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf5.htm
KN4LF HF/MF Radio Propagation Theory Notes: http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf8.htm
KN4LF Amateur & SWL Radio History: http://www.kn4lf.com/index.htm




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