[Propagation] SIDC Belgium Daily Solar & Geo Report

["Thomas Giella KN4LF" <kn4lf@tampabay.rr.com>]

:Issued: 2004 Dec 11 1224 UTC
:Product: documentation at http://sidc.oma.be/products/meu
#------------------------------------------------------------------------------#
# DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC 
(RWC-Belgium) #
#------------------------------------------------------------------------------#
SIDC URSIGRAM 41211
SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 11 Dec 2004, 1212UT
SIDC FORECAST (valid from 1230UT, 11 Dec 2004 until 13 Dec 2004)
SOLAR FLARES  : Quiet conditions (<50% probability of C-class flares)
GEOMAGNETISM  : Minor geomagnetic storm expected (A>=30 or K=5)
SOLAR PROTONS : Quiet
PREDICTIONS FOR 11 Dec 2004  10CM FLUX: 086 / AP: 009
PREDICTIONS FOR 12 Dec 2004  10CM FLUX: 086 / AP: 016
PREDICTIONS FOR 13 Dec 2004  10CM FLUX: 086 / AP: 011

COMMENT: Solar wind speed has increased since yesterday evening up to the 
value
of 500 km/s. The B_z of the interplanetary magnetic field is small resulting 
in
quiet conditions. The arrival of the shock caused by the CME that left the 
sun
on Dec 08 is expected for the second half of this UT day. Minor storm 
conditions
are possible.

A shock probably associated with the halo CME of Dec 8 arrived at earth at
13:00UT. The B_z is still fluctuating. We expect it to get stable as ACE 
passes
through the plasma cloud of the CME itself. Minor storm conditions are 
possible.

SOLAR INDICES FOR 10 Dec 2004
SUNSPOT INDEX       : 038
10CM SOLAR FLUX     : 085
AK CHAMBON LA FORET : 018
AK WINGST           : ///
ESTIMATED AP        : 012

NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX  END  LOC    XRAY OP  10CM RADIO BURST TYPES     Catania NOAA 
NOTE
NONE

73,
Thomas F. Giella, KN4LF
Retired Space & Atmospheric Weather Forecaster
Plant City, FL, USA
Grid Square EL87WX
Lat & Long 27 58 33.6397 N 82 09 52.4052 W
kn4lf@arrl.net

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