[Propagation] KN4LF Daily LF/MF/HF RX Prop Outlook #2004-008

["Thomas Giella KN4LF" <kn4lf@tampabay.rr.com>]

KN4LF Daily LF/MF/HF Radio Propagation Outlook #2004-008

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Date Format is MM/DD/YYYY

Published Friday 12/23/2004 At 2000 UTC Valid 12/24-31/2004



During the period quiet to active (Kp 0-4) geomagnetic conditions "WILL 
OCCUR".

During the period minor (Kp 5) geomagnetic storming is "PROBABLE".

The chance of polar cap absorption on high latitude propagation paths due to 
excessive energetic protons >10 Mev (10+0) is low.

The chance of daylight radio blackouts from solar flares is low.

The chance of a geoeffective (Earth facing) Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) is 
medium.

The chance of a geoeffective (Earth facing) Coronal Hole is high.

Daily solar flux levels should range between 90-115.



GLOBAL LF UNDER 300 KC PROPAGATION CONDITIONS EXPECTED-

Daytime- Fair.
Nighttime- Poor.



GLOBAL HF 3000-30000 KC PROPAGATION CONDITIONS EXPECTED-

Low Latitude- Good.

Mid Latitude- Good.

High Latitude- Fair to good.



GLOBAL MF 300-3000 KC PROPAGATION CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH AN EMPHASIS ON 
THE MF AM BROADCAST BAND, 160 METERS AND 120 METERS-



-Expect fair to good "Northern Hemisphere" domestic propagation conditions 
on east-west paths out to approximately 1100 miles.

*Expect fair domestic conditions on north "TO" south paths in the "Northern 
Hemisphere" out to approximately 1100 miles.

+Expect good to fair domestic conditions on south "TO" north paths in the 
"Northern Hemisphere" out to approximately 1100 miles.



-Expect fair "Southern Hemisphere" domestic propagation conditions on 
east-west paths out to approximately 1100 miles.

+Expect fair to good domestic conditions on north "TO" south paths in the 
"Southern Hemisphere" out to approximately 1100 miles, becoming poor on 
12/20, then back to fair on 12/21.

*Expect poor conditions on south "TO" north paths in the "Southern 
Hemisphere" out to approximately 1100 miles.



Equatorial region domestic propagation conditions out to approximately 1100 
miles should be fair to good.



"High latitude" Northern Hemisphere (TA) Trans Atlantic, (TI) Trans Indian, 
(TP) Trans Pacific and cross equatorial propagation conditions in excess of 
approximately 3200 miles should be fair.

"High latitude" Southern Hemisphere (TA) Trans Atlantic, (TI) Trans Indian, 
(TP) Trans Pacific and cross equatorial propagation conditions in excess of 
approximately 3200 miles should be fair.




"Mid latitude" Northern Hemisphere (TA) Trans Atlantic, (TI) Trans Indian, 
(TP) Trans Pacific and cross equatorial propagation conditions in excess of 
approximately 3200 miles should be good.

"Mid latitude" Southern Hemisphere (TA) Trans Atlantic, (TI) Trans Indian, 
(TP) Trans Pacific and cross equatorial propagation conditions in excess of 
approximately 3200 miles should be fair to good.




"Low latitude" Northern Hemisphere (TA) Trans Atlantic, (TI) Trans Indian, 
(TP) Trans Pacific propagation conditions in excess of approximately 3200 
miles should be good.

"Low latitude" Southern Hemisphere (TA) Trans Atlantic, (TI) Trans Indian, 
(TP) Trans Pacific propagation conditions in excess of approximately 3200 
miles should be fair to good.





Equatorial region to Northern Hemisphere "mid latitude" propagation 
conditions in excess of approximately 3200 miles should be good.

Equatorial region to Southern Hemisphere "mid latitude" propagation 
conditions in excess of 3200 miles should be good.



Equatorial region to Northern Hemisphere "high latitude" propagation 
conditions in excess of approximately 3200 miles should be good to fair.

Equatorial region to Southern Hemisphere "high latitude" propagation 
conditions in excess of 3200 miles should be good to fair.



Propagation Forecast Scales-

Excellent- +1 db Over S9 Or better
Good- S7-9
Fair- S4-6
Poor- S1-3


GLOBAL NOISE (QRN) OUTLOOK-

U.S. LIGHTNING STRIKE DATA
(See Where Your QRN Is Coming From)

Sorry but global views of near real time lightning strikes are no longer 
available.



http://www.lightningstorm.com/tux/jsp/gpg/lex1/mapdisplay_free.jsp


During the 7 day outlook period there will be "moderate lightning induced 
QRN levels in low latitude areas of the Northern Hemisphere due to the 
proximity of the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) and tropical 
cyclones.

Northern hemisphere mid latitude regions can expect "moderate to high" 
lightning induced QRN tied to winter season thunderstorms, 
cold/warm/occluded fronts, associated extra-tropical cold core low pressure 
systems and El Nino.

Northern hemisphere high latitude regions can expect "low" lightning induced 
QRN tied to winter season thunderstorms, cold/warm/occluded fronts and 
associated extra-tropical cold core low pressure systems.




During the outlook period there will be "high" lightning induced QRN levels 
in low latitude areas of the Southern Hemisphere due to the proximity of the 
Inter Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) and tropical cyclones.

Southern hemisphere mid latitude regions can expect "high" lightning induced 
QRN, tied to summer season thunderstorms and tropical cyclones.

Southern hemisphere high latitude regions can expect "moderate" lightning 
induced QRN tied to summer season thunderstorms, cold/warm/occluded fronts 
and associated extra-tropical cold core low pressure systems.



END OF FORECAST



SOLAR, SPACE WEATHER AND GEOMAGNETIC INDICES FOR 12/17-23/2004-

Sunspot Groups- Sunspot group #'10713 located at S08E22 contains twisted 
magnetic signatures capable of producing C class solar flares, with isolated 
medium sized M class flares possible.


Solar Flux Readings- 90 to 101

SEC Sunspot Number- 25 to 47

Solar Wind Speed- 344-669

X-Ray Solar Flares- C-3 M-0 X-0

Averaged Daily Background X-Ray Flux- B1.1-B1.5

Dst Index- -40 to +16

Elevated Energetic Protons >10 MeV (10+o)- 0

Geo or partially geoeffective (Earth Facing) Coronal Mass Ejections- 0

Geoeffective Coronal Holes- 2

CH #134 12/18-23/04 CH #135 12/23- present.

No polar cap absorption on high latitude propagation paths due to excessive 
energetic protons >10 Mev (10+0) occurred.

The Ap index has been at quiet to minor storm levels, with a range of 0 to 
48.

The Kp index has been at quiet to minor storm levels, with a range of 0 to 
5.





Here are some "general" guidelines concerning correlation of propagation 
indices to actual expected HF/MF propagation conditions.

1.) Dropping indices numbers are better, with the exception of solar flux 
and sunspot number on HF.

2.) For medium frequencies a solar flux under 150, under 100 better, 70 is 
best for E layer multi hop. For high frequencies over 125 is good, over 150 
is better, over 200 is best.



Keep in mind though that at medium frequencies the 10.7 cm (2800 mhz) solar 
flux index is not a "reliable" gauge of ionization in our atmosphere, as the 
energy of photons at this frequency is to low on the order of one million 
times. However most are used to solar flux and sunspot number and it's a 
hard habit to break. A better indicator is the background x-ray flux. See 
#7.

3.) Solar flux of at least 100 for E valley-F layer ducting mechanism.
4.) Previous 24 hour Ap index under 10, under 7 for several days
consecutively is best.
5.) Previous 3 hour Kp index under 3 for mid latitude paths, under 2 for 
high latitude paths, 0-1 for several days consecutively is best.
6.) Energetic protons no greater then 10 MeV (10+0) for 160/120 meters and 
no greater then (10-1) on MF AM broadcast band.
7.) Background x-ray flux levels less than C1 for several days consecutively 
for 160/120 meters and less then B9 for MF broadcast band but A9 or less is 
best.
8.) No current STRATWARM alert.
9.) IMF Bz with a (+) sign, indicates a lesser chance of high latitude path 
auroral absorption/unpredictable refraction or scattering of MF RF signals, 
when the Kp is above 3. 
10.) A -50 or better towards a positive number Dst index during the recovery 
time after a geomagnetic storm, as related to the Equatorial Ring Current.




TODAY'S PROPAGATION LESSON -



Coronal Mass Ejection (CME)-

A Coronal Mass Ejection is the name given to an ejection of a large amount 
of matter from the Sun's outer atmosphere or corona. These ejections 
typically comprise millions of tons of material in the form of charged 
particles, and can be seen because the material reflects sunlight. When one 
of these ejections is directed towards the Earth (or conversely, directly 
away from the Earth), it looks like a roughly circular "halo" surrounding 
the Sun.

The "Halo CME's" then are those CME's which are more likely to impact the 
Earth than those which are shot out at right angles to the Earth-Sun line. 
Energetic protons emitted during CME's play a major role in increased day 
time and night-time D-layer absorption of medium frequencies.

Coronal Mass Ejections were once thought to be completely initiated by solar 
flares. However it is now known that many (CME's) are not associated with 
Solar Flares but instead with Solar Filaments. If a (CME) collides with the 
Earth, it can excite a Geomagnetic Storm if the polarity of the IMF has a 
negative sign. We must be vigilant in watching for geo-effective (CME's), in 
order to not be caught by surprise with a seemingly sudden and unexpected 
Geomagnetic Storm.

For more information go to KN4LF HF/MF Frequency Radio Propagation Theory 
Notes at http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf8.htm




Space Weather Scales-

Kp Indices-

G5 = Extreme Storm - Kp = 9
G4 = Severe Storm - Kp = 8
G3 = Strong Storm - Kp = 7
G2 = Moderate Storm - Kp = 6
G1 = Minor Storm - Kp = 5
Active - Kp = 4
Unsettled - Kp = 3



Ap Indices-

Ap 100-400 Severe Storm
Ap 50-99 Major Storm
Ap 30-49 Minor Storm
Ap 16-29 Active
Ap 8-15 Unsettled
Ap 0-7 Quiet

Correlation Of Kp To Ap Indices-

K- 0= A- 0
K- 1= A- 3
K- 2= A- 7
K- 3= A- 15
K- 4= A- 27
K- 5= A- 48
K- 6= A- 80
K- 7= A- 140
K- 8= A- 240
K- 9= A- 400



Standard Disclaimer-

Note! I use "RAW" public domain data from the NOAA Space Environment Center, 
as well as other U.S. government organizations, to produce my "not for 
profit" propagation forecast outlooks. This data is gathered and made public
by the U.S. Government using taxpayer $$$. However the forecast outlooks 
that I produce from the "RAW" public domain data, is my personal 
intellectual property. Therefore the propagation outlooks contained herein 
is copyrighted © 1988-2004 by Thomas F. Giella and the Florida Space and 
Atmospheric Weather Institute, all rights reserved. Reproduction of 
information herein is allowed as long as proper credit is given.

Also space weather forecasting is still an inexact science. The discussions, 
forecasts and outlooks are not official but for educational purposes only 
and are subject to human error and acts of God, therefore no guarantee or 
warranty implied.

73 & GUD DX,
Thomas F. Giella, KN4LF
Retired Space & Atmospheric Weather Forecaster
Plant City, FL, USA
Grid Square EL87WX
Lat & Long 27 58 33.6397 N 82 09 52.4052 W
kn4lf@arrl.net



Propagation eGroup: http://lists.contesting.com/mailman/listinfo/propagation
PropNET Beacon Program: http://www.propnet.org
KN4LF Daily Solar Space Weather & Geomagnetic Data Archive: 
http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf5.htm
KN4LF HF/MF Frequency Radio Propagation Theory Notes: 
http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf8.htm
KN4LF Amateur & SWL Radio History: http://www.kn4lf.com/index.htm








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