Yesterday December 08, 2004 at approximately 1959 UTC a long duration C2.5
solar flare at N04W11 occurred in associationwith sunspot group #10709. A
filament eruption near N01W07 also occurred during the same time frame. SOHO
LASCO imaging is not realclear but it appears that at the very least a
partially geo-effective (Earth facing) coronal mass ejection (CME) occurred.
The CME should impact Earth's geomagnetic field on UTC December 11, 2004
creating active (Kp-4) to minor (Kp-5) geomagnetic storming. "If" theCME turns
out to be full halo then geomagnetic storming could be more intense. 73,Thomas
F. Giella, KN4LFRetired Space & Atmospheric Weather ForecasterPlant City, FL,
USAGrid Square EL87WXLat & Long 27 58 33.6397 N 82 09 52.4052
Wkn4lf@arrl.netPropagation eGroup:
http://lists.contesting.com/mailman/listinfo/propagationPropNET Beacon Program:
http://www.propnet.orgHCDX Propagation Channel:
http://www.hard-core-dx.com/index.php?topic=Propagation KN4LF Daily Solar
Space Weather & Geomagnetic Data Archive: http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf5.htmKN4LF
HF/MF Radio Propagation Theory Notes: http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf8.htmKN4LF
Amateur & SWL Radio History: http://www.kn4lf.com/index.htmJoint USAF/NOAA
Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 343 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Dec 2004
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07/2100Z
to 08/2100Z: Solar activity was low. The largest event of the period
was a C2/Sf flare at 08/1959Z. This flare was associated with a 14
degree filament eruption from a sigmoid region on SXI imagery near
N01W07. A Type II radio sweep (808 km/s) also accompanied this
flare. Region 710 (S08E47) was numbered today and produced a C1
flare at 08/0414Z. No other significant activity was noted.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low. An isolated C-class flare is possible.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled with isolated active
periods. A weak high speed stream, which began on 06 December
continues to decline, ending the period near 450 km/s. The greater
than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled with isolated active periods.
III. Event Probabilities 09 Dec-11 Dec
Class M 05/05/05
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 08 Dec 082
Predicted 09 Dec-11 Dec 080/080/085
90 Day Mean 08 Dec 106
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 07 Dec 009/015
Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Dec 010/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Dec-11 Dec 010/008-008/008-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Dec-11 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 25/20/20
Minor storm 05/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 30/25/25
Minor storm 10/05/05
Major-severe storm 05/01/01
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